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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK WITHIN 2 DAYS
So far the market goes exactly as I planned in 06/24 Market Outlook. See chart below, even I don’t need change a single lines drawn on that day. So tomorrow could be the branch point:
- Drop directly then it could be the Symmetrical Triangle case.
- Small rise to higher high then it could be the Bear Flag case.
- Another huge up day like today, then no argue, say goodbye to bears.
For now, case 1 or 2 have a little bit higher odds. The arguments are supported by many charts I saw today which if the intermediate-term trend still remains down then a pullback should start as early as tomorrow. While no pullback instead a huge up tomorrow, then it’d imply a change in character, something indeed is different now, and this is why I said above, if up huge tomorrow, we’d better say goodbye to bears. The chart below is the most convincing one among all the charts I saw today – NYADV is way too high, so don’t expect a big up day tomorrow if not red. By the way, this chart is also the reason I said in today’s Trading Signals that if up again tomorrow, short at close might have higher odds. Besides there’s an additional reason as according to Stock Trader’s Almanac: Last day of Q2 bearish for Dow, down 14 of last 19 but bullish for Nasdaq, up 12 of 18, although down 6 of last 7.
I don’t see UUP daily chart below as bearish. The reason I mention it today is that it looks like the successful austerity vote would be interpreted as good for the dollar, therefore chances are high we’d see sell on news on the stock market. Besides, the pullback in gold could also imply a strong dollar ahead.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MORE SELLING AHEAD
See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH THURSDAY BULLISH FRIDAY
ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:
ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: