07/07/2011 Market Outlook (More Highs Ahead)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE OVERBOUGHT

Three cents:

  1. A little bit overbought now, so a pullback is just a matter of time.
  2. Most likely today’s high is not the high.
  3. Pullback is buy, especially if no higher high tomorrow, the market pullbacks right at the open.

I think you all know why I think a pullback is just a matter of time because T2122 and NYMO, I’ve been blah blah recently, are overbought again.

T2122

NYMO

Why isn’t today’s high the high? Because NYHGH (Number of  NYSE Stocks at New 52-Week Highs) closed above 450 today. The chart below shows all the NYHGH history when it closed above 450. Only 1 out of 28 chances today’s high is the high while the rest 27 cases, NYHGH had to form a negative divergence before a top of some kind was in. So the conclusion is, more up ahead, especially if no higher high tomorrow, the market pullbacks right away, then knowing a higher high ahead could be very profitable in this case.

RecordNYHGH2010RecordNYHGH2004RecordNYHGH2003

As for tomorrow Non Farm Payroll day, the cliches are open high close low or open low close high. The statistics below are from Bespoke.

10StrongestNFP10WeakestNFP

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 3 of 6 *Overbought
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP NAMO overbought.
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly UP
XIU & Weekly DOWN 1.5.9 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought.
DAX & Weekly UP
TLT & Weekly DOWN *Bear Flag?
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly UP
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly UP  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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