07/12/2011 Market Outlook (Lower Close Ahead?)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: REBOUND MAY OR MAY NOT TOMORROW BUT MORE LIKELY LOWER CLOSE AHEAD EVENTUALLY

I said yesterday, the selling didn’t appear over because the Bear Flag was missing. Well, today we got the Flag and it did breakdown, but unfortunately, the breakdown didn’t get enough time before the market closed, so it’s not clear yet whether the breakdown is decisive enough, therefore cannot exclude the possibility that the low was in or very close (as the mini 2 legged down has been fulfilled). So sorry guys, we’ll have to wait until tomorrow.

SPY60min

However, there’s one thing I’m a little certain: If indeed the market rebounds right away tomorrow, the rebound most likely is sell. The argument is a strong uptrend should never have 3 consecutive down days. The chart below should be clear enough, at least lower close ahead.

LowerCloseAhead

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY BEARISH FRIDAY, BEARISH JULY EXPIRATION WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before July expiration, Dow up 6 of last 7.
  2. July expiration day, Dow down 6 of last 10, off 390 points (4.6%) in 2002.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate 5 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP  
SSEC & Weekly UP  
EEM & Weekly UP
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly UP  
TLT & Weekly DOWN  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP Symmetrical Triangle?
USO & Weekly UP  
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly UP
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly UP  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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