07/14/2011 Market Outlook (Diamond as Half Staff)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

Chart pattern looks like a Diamond Bottom acts as continuation pattern, so theoretically we’re only half way on the downside. Besides, see chart below, while SPY is still miles from 06/22 highs but RSP is already there. Since RSP is equal weighted S&P 500 ETF, therefore RSP leads down implies that the SPX internal is much worse than it appears because as you all know, for SPX, holding just a few heavy weighted stocks could easily make the chart looks prettier. So all in all, RSP leads down is not a good sign.

SPY60min

Those who follow Non-Stop Model, the sell signal might have been triggered, so should close long position tomorrow and aggressive trader can even start to short. You can, however, as always, wait for a few days before closing long then start short to prevent whipsaw. As for how well this sell signal worked in the past, you can check my public chart list, from 8.2.2a Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals – 2004 to 8.2.2g Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals – 2010, seems to me not a bad signal mostly.

NonStop

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY BEARISH FRIDAY, BEARISH JULY EXPIRATION WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before July expiration, Dow up 6 of last 7.
  2. July expiration day, Dow down 6 of last 10, off 390 points (4.6%) in 2002.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate 4 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP  
SSEC & Weekly UP  
EEM & Weekly UP
XIU & Weekly DOWN
DAX & Weekly UP  
TLT & Weekly DOWN  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly UP  
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly UP
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly UP  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.