07/18/2011 Market Outlook (Rebound then More Selling?)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND BUT CHANCES ARE HIGH MORE SELLING THEREAFTER

Not sure if the market will keep bouncing tomorrow, however a little little little little (insert 100 little here) more certain is the selling is not over yet. The chart below explains why: 2 Major Distribution Days within 5 trading days, seems only 2 exceptions (2/13 = 15%) it’s exactly the bottom, the rest cases were more selling ahead. Although it also means 9 out of 13 (69%) chances a green day tomorrow.

2MDDWithin5Days

The chart below is why I’m not sure if more rebound tomorrow, although the above statistics says 69% chances. The chart pattern looks like a Bear Flag, especially RSP is leading down. So in order to fulfill the 69% chances green tomorrow and the Bear Flag, my guess is maybe some weakness in the morning then rebound to close green?

SPY60min

Tomorrow’s show is the AAPL ER in AH. I believe nobody believes AAPL ER would be bad but I’d like to remind you that AAPL post ER was more like a firework – shot high then fell to the ground where it started. See chart below, there’s only one exception since the 2009 bull market. This chart, by the way, also implies that the broad market may rebound then sell off thereafter.

AAPLER

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after July expiration, Dow down 7 of last 12, 2007 –4.2%, 2008 –4.3%, but up 4.0% in 2009.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP  
SSEC & Weekly UP  
EEM & Weekly DOWN
XIU & Weekly DOWN
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly DOWN  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly UP  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.