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SHORT-TERM: STILL EXPECT SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD, NOT IDEA WHEN THOUGH
All I wanted to say were already in today’s Trading Signals, still expect some short-term weakness at least because there’re so many evidences mentioned in 07/20 Market Outlook, I don’t think they’re simply all wrong. However, from the chart pattern, I don’t see any sign of pullback coming yet, so no idea when the pullback will start. The chart below shows perhaps the fastest possible pattern that may result in a pullback, if, however, another huge gap up and up up tomorrow, then let’s just forget the pattern. By the way, we had 2 huge gap up then sharp pullback then rallied high days, so if tomorrow we see another huge gap up and sharp pullback again in the middle, then better not to expect it’d rally again because the 3rd time is the charm, well, we’ll see.
The chart below argues for a pullback within 2 days, so simply another evidence to support the pullback view mentioned in 07/20 Market Outlook.
It seems the Non-Stop model sell signal was merely a whipsaw, so tomorrow, those who follow Non-Stop model have to cover short (if any) then take long. Again, you can wait for a few days in case this is yet another whipsaw.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY
SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after July expiration, Dow down 7 of last 12, 2007 –4.2%, 2008 –4.3%, but up 4.0% in 2009.
Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July. Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
- 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
- 07/20 Market Outlook: Multiple evidences arguing for more pullbacks ahead.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: