07/21/2011 Market Outlook (No Title)


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SHORT-TERM: STILL EXPECT SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD, NOT IDEA WHEN THOUGH

All I wanted to say were already in today’s Trading Signals, still expect some short-term weakness at least because there’re so many evidences mentioned in 07/20 Market Outlook, I don’t think they’re simply all wrong. However, from the chart pattern, I don’t see any sign of pullback coming yet, so no idea when the pullback will start. The chart below shows perhaps the fastest possible pattern that may result in a pullback, if, however, another huge gap up and up up tomorrow, then let’s just forget the pattern. By the way, we had 2 huge gap up then sharp pullback then rallied high days, so if tomorrow we see another huge gap up and sharp pullback again in the middle, then better not to expect it’d rally again because the 3rd time is the charm, well, we’ll see.

SPY15min

The chart below argues for a pullback within 2 days, so simply another evidence to support the pullback view mentioned in 07/20 Market Outlook.

NYADV

It seems the Non-Stop model sell signal was merely a whipsaw, so tomorrow, those who follow Non-Stop model have to cover short (if any) then take long. Again, you can wait for a few days in case this is yet another whipsaw.

NonStop

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after July expiration, Dow down 7 of last 12, 2007 –4.2%, 2008 –4.3%, but up 4.0% in 2009.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate 4 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *BUY mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP  
SSEC & Weekly UP  
EEM & Weekly DOWN
XIU & Weekly DOWN
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly DOWN  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly UP  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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