08/01/2011 Market Outlook (Last Engulfing Bottom)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: REBOUND, IF ANY, IS SELL

For three reasons, I believe, rebound, if any, is sell:

  • The Last Engulfing Bottom formed on the SPY daily chart means bearish continuation 65% times. The chart below, highlighted in red, are the recent cases when Last Engulfing Bottom (at at least 5-day low) was formed, clearly we can see all were in the middle of a down swing.

SPYDailyLastEngulfingBottom

  • Non-Stop signalled a sell today, I hope you still remember that in 07/15 Market Outlook, I proved that such a sell signal was correct 25 out of 27 (93%) times. In another word, there’re only 7% chances today’s low was the low. By the way, those who follow Non-Stop, tomorrow should close long and if you’re aggressive trader, may consider open a short.

NonStopNonStopSellSignalStatistics

  • As mentioned in 07/29 Market Outlook, SPX down 5 or more days in a row means today’s low will be revisited eventually.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN DOWNTREND, SPX TARGET MARCH LOWS AT 1249

A Double Top could be formed on the SPX daily chart, therefore the target could be the March lows at 1249.

SPXDaily

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 *NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): SOX lags, be careful.
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly UP  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly UP  
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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