08/02/2011 Market Outlook (Exhaustion Bar?)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: REBOUND, IF ANY, IS SELL

Two conclusions:

  1. Could see a rebound as early as tomorrow.
  2. Rebound, if any, is sell.

Listed below are the reasons why we could see a rebound as early as tomorrow:

  • NYMO oversold. This is not an ordinary oversold, it’s extremely oversold.

NYMO

  • 2 Major Distribution Day within 5 days means rebound but also means rebound, if any, is sell.

2MDDWithin5Days

  • Today’s SPX bar looks like an exhaustion bar, so a rebound of some kind should be close. It doesn’t guarantee green tomorrow or even worse, could be another bigger red bar with even bigger volume (which means more exhaustion), so I don’t mean it’s the reason for a rebound tomorrow, it just means that we’re almost there, it’s a sign when I read charts, that’s it.

SPXDaily

Why, rebound, if any, is sell?

  • Still it’s the law of inertia, a forward accelerating car cannot be reversed without slowing down first. NYMO new low means the downward is accelerating so need a sign of decelerating first which in terms of NYMO is NYMO positive divergence that is still missing in the chart below.

NYMOPositiveDivergenceNeeded

  • As mentioned above 2 Major Distribution Day within 5 days, although could mean a short-term rebound but it’s not pleasant on a little bit longer than short-term.
  • Remember all the reasons I blah blah in 08/01 Market Outlook? They’re mostly still valid, especially that SPX down 5 days or more stuff, since no rebound today, so it should be valid for sure.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN DOWNTREND, SPX TARGET MARCH LOWS AT 1249

See 08/01 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 4 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): SOX lags, be careful.
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly UP  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly UP  
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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