SHORT-TERM: EXPECT THE REBOUND TO FAIL EVENTUALLY
Maintain the call that the rebound eventually will fail. I’ve been mentioning lots of reasons in 08/02 Market Outlook, 08/05 Market Outlook and 08/08 Market Outlook, so won’t blah blah here again. That said, the market is always right, so I’m always ready to admit the error. The chart below is a simply rule to judge if indeed the low was in: Usually when market rose from an important bottom, it’d be very strong and up 6 out of 7 days, so if the market rises huge again tomorrow, then bears better be prepared that the low was in.
So will the market rise huge tomorrow? So far I don’t think chances are high. I’ve mentioned one reason in today’s Trading Signals that when VIX dropped more than 18%, chances are very high, a red day tomorrow. In addition, since yesterday was a Major Distribution Day followed immediately by a Major Accumulation Day today so chances are high too, a red day tomorrow. The reason I didn’t mention this in today’s Trading Signals is because the chart also implies that today’s low will likely be revisited.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000
See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
08/04 Market Outlook : Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
08/01 Market Outlook ,08/02 Market Outlook, 08/05 Market Outlook, 08/08 Market Outlook: Rebound, if any, is sell.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: