08/10/2011 Market Outlook (Diamond Bottom with Positive Money Flows)


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SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

No new argument today. Could be a Diamond Bottom in the forming which although has the word “bottom” but in reality 50% chances it means a continuation, so we’ll have to wait for the breakout to get to know the direction next. My guess is the market may consolidate around here for awhile forming either Bear Flag or Rectangle before another leg down.

SPY60min

Nothing else to say, two unique things today I’d like your attention, my guess is they could mean a gap up and green tomorrow.

  • Although up a lot yesterday, but the money flows was very negative, so as the result a huge down day today, while strangely, the money flow today was very positive, so does this imply a huge up day tomorrow?

MoneyFlow

  • It’s very very rare for SPX to drop more than 2% while TICK managed to close above zero. Since the year 2008, there’re only 2 such a cases like today, one down day the next day while one up day the next day, so I don’t see any edge from it, but let’s remember this anyway, as we’ll soon know what it really implies.

TICK

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 5 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN Triple Top breakdown, targeting Oct lows.
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Breakdown long term support!
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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