08/11/2011 Market Outlook (More on the upside?)


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SHORT-TERM: MORE ON THE UPSIDE

Two cents:

  1. More on the upside.
  2. Still think 08/09 lows will be revisited, unless up huge again tomorrow which according to today’s Trading Signals, seems unlikely. As for why huge up tomorrow then the low might be in, please refer to 08/09 Market Outlook for the details.

The chart below explains why more on the upside, as 2 Major Accumulation Day within 5 days usually means a tradable bottom if not an intermediate-term bottom. In addition, seasonality will be mostly bull friendly starting from tomorrow.

2MADWithin5DaysSeasonality

As for the rebound target, for now, I’ll use Diamond Bottom text book target because statistically, there’re 81% chances, such a target will be met, seems a trustworthy number here.

SPY60min

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term *UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN Triple Top breakdown, targeting Oct lows.
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Breakdown long term support!
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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