08/12/2011 Market Outlook (Bull Flag in Bear Flag)


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SHORT-TERM: MORE ON THE UPSIDE

Nothing new, still think the rebound is not over yet, but eventually it would fail. As for why eventually the rebound would fail, I’ve listed all the past analysis in the Active Bearish Outlook session below, so won’t bother to blah blah here again. Chart pattern wise, from different time frame, I see different conclusion where the 15 min chart looks bullish therefore should be more on the upside while on 60 min chart, it’s still a Bear Flag or Pennant therefore eventually will continue lower. As for when the market resumes the downward push, we’ll have to wait for the 15 min chart Pennant or Symmetrical Triangle to complete first.

SPY15min

SPY60min

I know most of you have already seen that SPY weekly Hammer, which looks bullish. The statistics below supports such a view at it seems chances are good for a green next and next next week.

SPYWeekly

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before August expiration, Dow up 11 of last 15.
  2. August expiration day bullish lately, Dow up 7 in a row 2003 – 2009.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN Triple Top breakdown, targeting Oct lows.
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Breakdown long term support!
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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