08/17/2011 Market Outlook (Double Reversal Bars)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

I don’t feel good about today’s market. A Hollow Red Bar (Close > Open but Close < Last Close) followed by a Filled Black Bar (Close < Open but Close > Last Close), both have strong implication of a reversal therefore cannot exclude the possibility that the top was already in. We’ll have to see tomorrow of course, so let’s say, it’s an orange warning for now.

SPYDaily

The chart below is a relatively bullish bearish view, as from the chart pattern, it feels still missing one last push up. If however, decisively break above today’s high tomorrow, then the view would be invalid and so does that orange warning. So again, let’s see tomorrow.

SPY15min

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before August expiration, Dow up 11 of last 15.
  2. August expiration day bullish lately, Dow up 7 in a row 2003 – 2009.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Breakdown long term support!
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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