08/18/2011 Market Outlook (Rebound maybe, but SPX lower close ahead)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: SIZEABLE REBOUND WITHIN 3 DAYS BUT SPX LOWER CLOSE AHEAD ALMOST GUARANTEED

Two conclusions:

  1. Expect rebound and close in green as early as tomorrow, or a sizeable rebound within 3 trading days.
  2. The selling isn’t over yet, most likely the 08/09 lows will be broken.

The chart below is what I see through my crystal ball, should help to understand the 2 conclusions mentioned above.

SPYEvilPlan

The chart below explains why a sizeable rebound is within 3 trading days. As for why expect rebound and close in green as early as tomorrow, please refer to today’s Trading Signals, there’re 88% chances.

MDD

Why isn’t the selling over yet?

  • NYADV too low, it almost guarantees SPX will close below today’s close soon. Besides, don’t forget, SPX still owns a lower close (below 08/10 close) . From the past successful rate of the chart below, it’s very rare fort both forecasts to fail, so at least SPX will close below today’s close.

NYADV

  • For NYMO to form a visible positive divergence, SPX lower low is the must which means the 08/09 lows will be broken.

NYMO

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before August expiration, Dow up 11 of last 15.
  2. August expiration day bullish lately, Dow up 7 in a row 2003 – 2009.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

  • 08/18 Market Outlook: Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Breakdown long term support!
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.