08/23/2011 Market Outlook (Rectangle Bottom)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: MORE ON THE UPSIDE

I expect more on the upside, targeting SPX 1175ish (Fib 61.8% from 08/17 high to 08/19 low). However, I don’t expect huge up tomorrow, most likely it’ll be a small red or small green.

For the SPX target, 2 reasons supporting rebound to Fib 61.8%:

SPY60min

  • NYDNV:NYUPV > 35, if indeed the low wasn’t in yet as I’ve been saying, then usually the rebound can go up to Fib 61.8% before any meaningful pullback. Listed below are all the rebound cases since year 2008.

MDD2011MDD2010MDD2008

Why don’t I expect huge up tomorrow, and it’s more likely small red or small green?

  • SPX rose 3%+ today but it’s not a Major Accumulation Day, counting the red dashed lines below indicating a red next day, there’re 70% chances a red tomorrow.

UpHugeButNotMAD

  • TICK > 1,000, very unlikely a huge up day tomorrow if not red.

TICK

  • NYADV too high, 61% chances a red day tomorrow.

NYADV

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

Please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term *UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken.
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Long term support broken.
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE oversold.
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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