08/26/2011 Market Outlook (Symmetrical Triangle or Rising Wedge)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

No new stuff, so if not interested, just take a look at the evil plan below and forget the rest. The only thing would change my call for breaking below Aug 9 lows is decisively break above the Aug 17 highs and never fall back a single cent below the Aug 17 highs (so called no overlapping). I don’t mean to test the Aug 9 lows immediately, as it’s quite possible the rebound would last for a month or two (Rising Wedge case). Trading wise, since the table below shows the short-term is up plus both Cobra Impulse System and Non-Stop are in buy mode now, so I’m more willing to bet on the long side (very careful though) until the short-term changes into downtrend.

SPYEvilPlan

Call me stubborn,  but, really really, it’s very very very very very rare that THE LOW was in:

  • The sell off we just had was way too strong which automatically implies a 3 legged down (Why? You Earth people can never overcome the law of inertia). The chart below still looks missing one last leg at least.

3PushDown

NYMO

  • Comparing with the past rally from the bottom, the Friday’s intraday pullback was way too big therefore the overall rebound looks like a ZigZag pattern instead of a 5 waved impulse up to galaxy far far away.

7DaysRule

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH TUESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  • August’s next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 14 years.
  • First trading day in September, S&P up 11 of last 15, back-to-back huge gains 1997 and 1998, up 3.1% and 3.9%.

Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken.
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Long term support broken.
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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