08/29/2011 Market Outlook (Could pullback tomorrow but higher high ahead)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: COULD PULLBACK TOMORROW, BUT HIGHER HIGH AHEAD

The market has chosen to go Bear Flag or Rising Wedge, so let’s see if it could decisively breakout the green line in the chart below.

SPYEvilPlan

Two conclusions:

  1. Most likely red tomorrow.
  2. More up ahead especially if red tomorrow without higher high first.

The chart below should prove why most likely a red tomorrow: NYMO is way too high, there’s only 1 exception in the chart the next day was green.

NYMO

Tow charts below are arguing more up ahead. They basically are the law of inertia, a strong push up like we had in the past 2 days seldom fail right away.

HHGuaranteed2MADWithin5Days

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH TUESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  • August’s next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 14 years.
  • First trading day in September, S&P up 11 of last 15, back-to-back huge gains 1997 and 1998, up 3.1% and 3.9%.

Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 4 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken.
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Long term support broken.
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.