09/13/2011 Market Outlook (The Weakest Rebound So Far)


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SHORT-TERM: DON’T EXPECT BIG UP TOMORROW AND THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW

Although another up day today, but if you compare with all the past rebounds since the Aug 9 lows, SO FAR (pay attention here, I said “so far”) the rebound we have is the weakest, therefore I’ll maintain that rebound will end within the tinted area. (a > a’, b < b’, so B > C, see 09/12 Market Outlook for details)

SPYEvilPlan

The chart below should have explained why the rebound is the weakest. The worst one is bulls have wasted 8 Elder Impulse System green bars. If you know a little behind the Elder Impulse System then you should know that green bar represents the strongest up momentum, so if the strongest up momentum cannot push the price far away from the EMA(20), then when it turns into blue bar (means deceleration), inevitably it would become even more difficult to be up huge.

WeakestRebound

All the above are saying, SO FAR, the rebound is the weakest. Now let’s focus on the future: Is it possible for bulls to show a real strength in the coming days?

From all the evidences I’ve collected SO FAR, chances are not very good for a huge up tomorrow and the day after tomorrow:

  • As mentioned in today’s Trading Signals, when TICK closed above 1,000, chances are low for a huge up day tomorrow, if not red.

TICK

  • The statistics below says, 73% chances, 1.8 trading days on average, SPX will close below today’s close. This means the day after tomorrow, at the latest, SPX will close in red, if green again tomorrow.

ISEE

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, September Triple Witching, Dow up 6 straight and 7 of last 8.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken.
XIU & Weekly DOWN
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP Breakout of long time consolidation area, not confirmed thought, but be careful.
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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