09/15/2011 Market Outlook (One down day at most until FOMC?)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: WE MIGHT HAVE ONLY ONE DOWN DAY UNTIL FOMC 

The big picture, because SPX didn’t exceed the height of the tinted area, within the time represented by the width of the tinted area, so again it proves the rebound is weaker than the previous 2 times (a > a’, b < b’, time spent on B < time spent on C), therefore I’ll maintain my view that what we have so far is just a rebound. The chart below is my most updated evil plan. The main idea is:

  1. This is a 3 push up rebound.
  2. The last push up should be the weakest (as I’ve been trying to prove in all my recent reports).
  3. If however the red line is decisively broken, then pretty much bears are dead meat again.

SPYEvilPlan

The chart below explains why I made a little modification on the above evil plan today. Because I’ve noticed an interesting thing that a strong rebound from an important bottom usually lasts 7 days, with only 1 red day at most. So far the market has been up for 4 days, plus 3 days and allowing 1 to 2 days differences, it happens to be around Sep 21 FOMC. So my conclusion for the short term:

  1. At least will be up to Sep 21 FOMC.
  2. During this up period, there could be just 1 red day at most. (What if there’re more than 1 red days? Well, simple, it only proves my view that this is just a rebound, doesn’t it?)
  3. Target SPX 1230, because B = C (see evil plan chart above).

7DaysRule

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, September Triple Witching, Dow up 6 straight and 7 of last 8.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 BUY 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken.
XIU & Weekly DOWN
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP Breakout of long time consolidation area, not confirmed thought, but be careful.
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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