09/27/2011 Market Outlook (Filled Black Bar)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE REBOUND BUT MORE LIKELY THE LOW WASN’T IN YET

As mentioned in today’s Trading Signals, I cannot exclude the possibility that the high was in today. That said, it’s not prudent to call so merely because of a filled black bar and a hollow red bar, so need see tomorrow. If however, another filled black bar or hollow red bar or Doji, then bulls really need to be careful because 2 reversal like bars in a row are much more reliable. The charts below should be clear enough why I cannot exclude the possibility that the high was in, especially the subtle divergence between SPX and VIX.

SPYDaily
VIXDaily

Except the reversal like bars mentioned above, we had a 2%+ up yesterday and as high as 3%+ today, but both days saw very negative Money Flows which is suspicious. I didn’t mean that because of the negative money flows so the market would drop immediately but certainly we should pay attention here.

MoneyFlow

I’m sure some would ask, since today’s rebound was the strongest where c > a and c > b, so does it prove that the trend has been changed to up from down? All I can say are this is the very first step, certainly a good sign, but there’s still a long way to go. The next, we may want to see whether bears could prove themselves, so again, let’s wait and see.

SPXEvilPlan

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, last day of Q3, Dow down 9 of last 13, massive 4.7% rally in 2008.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.