09/28/2011 Market Outlook (Lower low ahead but a tradable bottom may be close)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: MORE LIKELY THE LOW WASN’T IN YET

I see lots of extremes today, the easiest conclusion is most likely more lower low ahead (Please pay attention, when I say lower low, I mean lower than today’s low as the conclusion is drawn purely based on the chart. If I mean lower than Aug 9 lows, I’d say it clearly – break below Aug 9 lows. So such lower low calls have been correct for the past weeks and so did the higher high calls). Combining with all the blah blah mentioned in 09/23 Market Outlook and the statistics mentioned in 09/26 Market Outlook so chances are pretty high that the low wasn’t in yet. The good news is that the low might be very close, at least it’s a tradable bottom.

Let’s talk about good news first.

ISEE Index made a 52-week low today, closed at 53. From the chart below, highlighted in red, although it basically says more lower low ahead but the good news is 100% chances a green day tomorrow. Noted that the sample size is too small to make a solid conclusion though, only 6 out of 6.

ISEEIndex

CPC > 1.4, also argues for a lower low ahead, just it looks like at least a tradable bottom is very close whenever CPC reads above 1.4.

CPC

Listed below are all the other extremes I saw today, take a look, all are arguing for a lower low ahead.

TRIN
CPCI
MDD

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, last day of Q3, Dow down 9 of last 13, massive 4.7% rally in 2008.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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