10/06/2011 Market Outlook (Higher High Ahead)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: HIGHER HIGH AHEAD

Nothing to say, at least there’ll be one more push up, because rarely, if never, was a Major Accumulation Day exactly the market top.

MAD

Tomorrow is the famous monthly Non Farm Payroll day. The intraday pattern is open high go lower or open low go higher. The chart below shows all the Non Farm Payroll days since the year 2009 bull market, looks like the chances for bulls and bears are 50 to 50 tomorrow, although 4 consecutive reds recently.

NFP

A little speculation about tomorrow’s open: Because of the gravity, there’s a limit on how far a price can move away from MA. For SPX 60 min chart, EMA ENV(20, 2.5) seems the up limit. Today it closed almost on the limit, so if huge gap up open tomorrow, it’d be out of the limit therefore whether such a gap could hold is questionable, especially we all know that the typical Non Farm Payroll intraday pattern is open high go lower or open low go higher.

EMAENV

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, BULLISH OCTOBER AND 4TH QUARTER

See 09/30 Market Outlook for details. The outlook also includes the October day to day seasonality chart.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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