10/11/2011 Market Outlook (Extremely High CPCI Readings)


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SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

Two cents:

  1. Could see a short-term pullback as early as tomorrow, more likely the day after tomorrow.
  2. A little bit big picture, still think the market will go the “route A” mentioned in 10/07 Market Outlook. That, there’ll be a pullback, one or two days sharp drop, very scary, but chances are it won’t break below the Oct 4 lows, therefore such a pullback is a buy opportunity. However, I have no solid evidences supporting such a view, it’s mostly based on experiences. For me, trading wise, since I never front run the market, so even the feeling is totally wrong, as long as I strictly follow the market, it won’t go terribly wrong, so please make sure you too, separate the trading reality from the expectation. The key is to accept the reality happily if it turns out to be totally against your original expectation. Smile

Listed below are evidences arguing for a short-term pullback:

  • CPCI is way too high which implies that big guys knew something we retailers yet know therefore hedged their positions in advance. From the chart below, obviously those big guys were mostly right that whenever CPCI suddenly went very high, there’d be a pullback of some kind thereafter, even with those rare 3 exceptions, still some pullbacks 2 out of 3 times.

CPCI

  • ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index >= 100, 70% chances a pullback within 2 days. The signal went wrong 3 times in a row recently, so if still the winning rate is 70%, chances are this time it’d be right.

ISEE

  • As mentioned in yesterday’s report, TICK MA(3) too high should mean a pullback within 2 days. The signal is valid until tomorrow.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 09/30 Market Outlook for October day to day seasonality chart.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

两点说明:

  1. 短期可能会有回调,最快明天,后天的可能性更大些。
  2. 大方向,暂时还是认为我们会走10/07 Market Outlook里提到的route A,就是说,会有pullback,一两天暴跌,比较吓人的那种,但不会跌破10月4号的low,因此这样的pullback是buy的机会。关于这一点,我没有什么证明,纯粹是靠经验和感觉,操作上,反正我是从来不抢跑的,因此既使感觉错了,只要紧紧跟着市场,是不会错得太离谱的,所以注意预期和操作要分开,操作要能经常的很欣然接受预期错误的现实。Smile

下面是关于回调预期的证明:

  • CPCI太高了,就是说大户知道些我们不知道的事情,因此提前作了准备。大户就是大户哈,CPCI这么高,基本上此后都有不同程度的回调,既使是仅有的3个不工作的例子,2 out of 3也是有回调的。

CPCI

  • ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index >= 100,70%的机率,两天内会有回调。这个信号,连错3次了,如果还是70%的机率的话,这次错的可能性应该不大。

ISEE

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 09/30 Market Outlook for October day to day seasonality chart.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.
  • Anonymous

    Thanks.

  • Anonymous

    thank you!

  • Xiao Jian

    thanks

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Cobra Thanksss!!!!!

  • Anonymous

    Thank you. GOOG ER after market close the day after tomorrow – Thursday close.
    Normally GOOG will show us something.  
    If you have time, I mean really not very busy, would you mind sharing your opinion about GOOG ?
    Did not wanna waste your valueable time. Busy, then ignore it.
    Anyway, thank you very much.

  • Anonymous

     thanks a lot

  • Anonymous

    Thanks

  • 90 ufo

    thanks!

  • 90 ufo

    thanks!

  • Anonymous

    okay so i said a pop to 1205…1199 good enough….should see a drop of some kind.  Also the QQQs hit trendline resistance on the daily. Too lazy to post a chart. 🙂  Just believe it.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the insight!

  • Anonymous

    Cobra: ISEE  for  All Indices & ETFs Only > 100; how bullish would you say, a lil bit, mild, or very? I can see that if its too bullish then should turn down for a pull back, but I have no clue how much greater than 100 is considered as an extreme.
    CallsPutsTotalISEE180117164080344197110

    • > 100 means too bullish.

  • Anonymous

    Cobra: why the pull back need to be day after tomorrow?

    • Because today’s 2 evidences show more likely it’s the day after tomorrow.

  • i’m awaiting the pullback as well. i have some shorts ready but the pullback will be over quickly i think.

  • roadmap for wednesday is ready for anyone interested. click on my name for the link.

  • Anonymous

    Read some comments from outside, all consider mkt is going to consolidate at current lever, then go to 1250.
    Hutong are on bear side.

    • Hmm, good question. I don’t have the answer. Maybe my expectation is wrong, we don’t pullback at all like the past 2 years. 

  • Anonymous

    THX!!!

  • uempel

    Bullish percentages are up and away, BPCOMPQ is weakest with plus 7.03%, BPNDX strongest with plus 22.22%. Charts of BPNYA and BPSPX both show more upside. 

    But SPX P&F shows a wall at 1200, and don’t forget 377 DMA is at 1212 (not shown here). It’s very unlikely that these two will break easily. 

    Bottom line: I’m bullish, as BPs are very strong and DMA 55 at 1185 has been broken, but careful because 1200 and 1212 might spoil the bullish set up. Go figure…

     

  • Anonymous

    班长,那么这个统计还工作吗?

  • laoda is so handsome~~~ 

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