SHORT-TERM MODEL HAS NO IDEA ABOUT THE TREND, HODING BOTH LONG (TRAPPED) AND SHORT OVERNIGHT
The bottom line, the direction is till not clear, so we have to wait.
Bears had 3 consecutive gap downs, which though for bulls, up to 5 consecutive gap up is nothing but for bear, is too much, so chances are yet another gap down tomorrow morning is low. That said if indeed another gap down, then bulls better not hope another sharp intraday reversal because that’d be, I cannot remember how many times bulls did recently, which is pretty much boring and lacking imagination or I shall say requires a lot imagination.
November 16, 2011 at 4:43 pm
ASTRO Update Moon Cycle…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/astro-moon-cycle_14.html
November 16, 2011 at 4:57 pm
Do you ever read Cobra’s daily reports or are you too busy posting links to your website?
November 16, 2011 at 5:07 pm
Sure I read it in my reader every day…
November 16, 2011 at 5:25 pm
Maybe you should read yesterdays market outlook again. You may learn something.
November 16, 2011 at 9:54 pm
Thanks, appreciate.
November 16, 2011 at 4:56 pm
ASTRO Update Sun 180 Jupiter…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/astro-sun-180-jupiter-2000-2011.html
November 16, 2011 at 5:05 pm
ASTRO Update Next Lower Low…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/10/astro-next-lower-low.html
November 16, 2011 at 5:12 pm
I’d call that intraday rally a nasty bull trap complete with a nasty EOD dump.
November 16, 2011 at 5:31 pm
Gap up is a sell
November 16, 2011 at 5:36 pm
I would have to agree, but I would keep a short leash on it until the market proved me right with some breather room.
November 16, 2011 at 7:00 pm
I’m going with a false breakdown pattern to scare longs short term and squeeze into opex or Monday after. Multi-week rally afterwards. A sharp drop tomorrow will create quick schizophrenic bearish sentiment. I know Cobra doesn’t talk about news or macro, but this triangle on s&p is all about ECB, whether they will step in aggressively and buy bonds or not. Next few days very news driven. My comments are short term only.
November 16, 2011 at 8:18 pm
> I’m going with a false breakdown pattern to scare longs short term and
squeeze into opex or Monday after. Multi-week rally afterwards.
This is my outlook as well. I sure hope you are right!
November 16, 2011 at 5:36 pm
CRASH potential!!!
will i be 3 for 3 for the predicting?http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/2011/11/will-i-be-3-for-3-for-predicting.html
November 16, 2011 at 5:45 pm
i can’t believe you keep posting a link to your site which is a solicitation of your services. come on man, if you’re going to share something, share it. otherwise, don’t use this forum to sell your own trading systems.
November 16, 2011 at 6:00 pm
at least i tell there is a potential crash coming, which people can not think of. that idea of a crash potential itself is a big gift to lots traders. ANYBODY see a crash?
November 17, 2011 at 3:13 am
How long have you been posting “CRASH potential!!”? I’ve seen you post that so much that I know it’s not worth my time to even click the link.
You have heard of the little boy who cried wolf?
November 16, 2011 at 9:55 pm
Thanks, appreciate.
November 16, 2011 at 5:51 pm
Cobra’s evil plan V5
November 16, 2011 at 6:16 pm
DOW:
Daily chart is still showing identical characteristics of the May 2008 top. This is also reflected in other time frames in that, at the time of the 2008 top many believed from a fundamental and technical perspective that we would go higher and that is also the case at present.
http://www.indexswingtrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/DOW-daily-16th-Nov-2011.jpg
Hourly shows a possible H+S pattern within the “triangle” that everyone has been talking about. Most believe the triangle will break to the upside, however, you cannot believe that until it has happened.
Looking at the largest individual hourly candles, they are all red, and all red candles that lost 120 points or more had follow through. What’s more, it is only those candles that produced the follow through that managed to crack below the 11,846 support level. All other attempts at 11,846 have found support. This would suggest the probability going forward is that 11,846 will get broken and we’ll go lower.
http://www.indexswingtrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/DOW-hourly-16th-Nov-2011.jpg
4 hourly chart shows that the 11,846 support combines with a fib level. Odds are that this level will not hold.Combining with this 11,846 area is a trend line that may offer support.
Ultimately I think it will break simply because at current levels we are not finding buyers to break through the October high, so we may need to go lower to find them.
One thing I do find interesting is that the gap at 11,134 has found itself right on the 61.8% fib retrace of the current move. Although it’s no guarantee that we’ll go and visit this in a straight line from here, this is very similar to the early stages of analysis that gave me the 10,461 call back when the DOW was at 12,800.http:
//www.indexswingtrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/DOW-4-hourly-16th-Nov-2011.jpg
All in all, I’ve really struggled to call the DOW right this Week, and today in particular has been tough for me, so bear that in mind when reading my analysis.
November 16, 2011 at 7:05 pm
DWCF Weekly
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/dwcf_16.html
And it ain’t over yet.
Have a good one.
November 16, 2011 at 7:35 pm
Cobra,
I have been reading your blog, including intraday comments
for some time now, I wanted to register and say that you do great work. Thanks!
So far, I’ve been buying every dip and it has been working-
but today feels a little different. I know, you’ve always said when you really
feel bad about a position, that will probably work out well- but not sure if it
is wise to hold longs overnight, especially given the violent move a EOD today.
Folks,
I’d appreciate any advice. I see that many of you have a
very bearish view- but how much of this we can attribute to the opex week “shakeout”?
I have seen both bulls and bears getting hurt in last
several days.
What are the chances that there is a fake break to downside of
the now famous triangle, then the move resumes to 1300?
I can’t wait to read Cobra’s market outlook tonight!
Thanks!
jbtfd
November 16, 2011 at 9:53 pm
Thanks. I’m afraid you’d be disappointed in tonight report, because I’m clueless about the market direction, although like you, I do feel bad about the market.
November 16, 2011 at 9:54 pm
Chances are good for a fake breakdown of the triangle before rocketing higher. That would fool plenty of traders, though not us right? Going long feels bad but is probably safe. J trader got a buy signal and he has been doing great nailing short term tops and bottoms.
November 16, 2011 at 9:57 pm
Well, seems every expecting a false breakdown. 🙂 Just read all the comments here you’d know why I say that. I don’t mean bullish or bearish, I just feel funny about this. 🙂
November 16, 2011 at 7:42 pm
thx,ding
November 16, 2011 at 8:14 pm
test
November 16, 2011 at 8:16 pm
Short term trend is down and I think we will see the 50 day ma very soon..
http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/2011/11/50-day-ma-test-lower-low-tomorrow.html
November 16, 2011 at 9:51 pm
Please don’t post the link to your blog here. Your ID is enough to let everyone knows your blog if interested. Thanks.
November 16, 2011 at 9:55 pm
No problem
November 16, 2011 at 9:55 pm
Thanks.
[…] say anything affirmative. Besides the target, there’s one thing I forgot to mention in today’s Trading Signals: In addition to that I don’t believe if down tomorrow we’d see sharp reversal again (like […]
November 17, 2011 at 1:04 am
The triangle way way too obvious. Everyone and their gay brother is talking about it. So that means it won’t pan out.
November 17, 2011 at 5:05 am
OIL Time Ratio…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/11/oil-time-ratio.html
November 17, 2011 at 10:51 am
Please refrain from posting the links, simply click your name would enough to bring anyone to your blog. Thanks.