11/25/2011 Trading Signals


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


THE SHORT-TERM MODEL BELIEVES THE TREND IS DOWN, HOLDING SHORT POSITION OVER THE WEEKEND

The bottom line, I believe a rebound of some kind is just a matter of time, but chances are the low wasn’t in yet, so the rebound, if any, most likely is a sell opportunity.

Bullish biased toward the next Monday because TICK closed below 1,000 which means 12 out of 16 chances (75%) a green day the next day.

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For the last 2,000 trading days, there’re not many cases when SPY down 7 days in a row, 3 out 4 cases a green day the next day though.

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Those who follow the Cobra Impulse System, it’s time to set the stop loss to breakeven.

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  • http://iwinthemarket.com GreedyKojiro

    If Monday is green, I don’t think it will break up 1,173 resistance. Below is my wildest guess if we have a rally on Monday.

  • HighRev

    NYMO upticked. ;-)

    • Anonymous

      The last time that happened Cobra called for large up the next day and was Correct. 

      • http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/ Cobra

        Not much edge. I think your remembered this one: Usually topped when up while NYMO TRUNING DOWN. http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/tag/spxupnymoturndown/

        • Anonymous

          Your correct as always.  Have a good weekend. Thanks

          • http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/ Cobra

            I’m correct most of the time, only wrong at the time when you really believed me. :-) So as the result, I cannot help you win money. Just like my wife used to say: when she believes me, I’m always wrong and when she doesn’t, which is the most cases, then I’m always right. :-)

    • Anonymous

      summation index in hard down acceleration

  • Anonymous

    Cobra,
    it’s the time to say: appreciate your daily market views.

    i see potential market plunge on next Monday is extremely high.
    Happy Thanksgiving holiday.

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  • Anonymous

    thx, ding

  • bwm

    S&P 500 weekly real money competition!

    I will be sponsoring a weekly “guess the S&P 500 close” where you can win up to $200 for the closest guess! http://www.bostonwealth.net/2011/11/25/spx-weekly-tournament/

  • uempel

    This long term momentum chart does not help the short term trader, but it shows how contradictory and tricky today’s market is:

    1. Chart does not show SPX, only its monthly momentum with the MA 21.
    2. Most interesting is the blue MA 21, which showed the decisive pivots for the 1995 – 2000 bull market, both the start and the end. It did not bother to show the 2003 – 2007 bull, as if it knew that those years were transient. But in 2009 it flatend out and turned upwards, signalling a new bull. At the At the moment, end of November 2011, MA 21 is stalling and flat.
    3. Red momentum looks more bearish than its MA 21. Momentum failed twice to break out of grid – last winter and again in July. Now it’s lower again, lower as when SPX was down at 1075 two months ago. 

    Note that monthly momentum/MAs prior to 1993/95 are distorted, as stockcharts data only reaches back 20 years.

  • uempel

    I’m clueless as to next week, but here some information:

    Not interesting: most bullish percentages were slightly down Friday, BPNDX and BPINDU were flat (no chart).
    Very interesting: short term momentum shows that 96% of all S&P stocks are on a “sell” – looks like a contrarian “buy” signal (no chart to show here, data from Credit Suisse)
    As to my charts: they don’t give clear signals for next week, but the Fib cycle on this chart suggests some kind of action.
    The mighty snake might be more ingenious when he dissects last week’s data.

  • HighRev
  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    I don’t have a clue about Monday, but I fully expect a crash on Tuesday.  It’s a very ritual date for the gangsters that control the market as it’s another “29″, just like October 29th, 1929 and September 29th, 2008.  The “29″ is actually an “Eleven” number for the gangsters as 2+9=11, but it’s not as obvious as 11-11-11 was… yet it is another 11-11-11 date for them.  I’d be shocked if they don’t crash it on this very ritual date.

    After that, then a powerful bounce the next day should happen… if it follows the previous patterns?  Then, as Cobra repeated states (the first breakout rarely holds), it should turn back down again and continue the selling.  My final bottom for this move is 965 spx… or “911″ (9 and [6+5=11]).  Yes, another ritual number by the scumbags that manipulated the market, just like the 666 spx low was on March 6, 2009.

    • Jason_70

      Hey Red, how u doing man.  Neither of us have been here in a long while.
      I use patterns more than TA to judge the moves and for the past 3 months all of that or for the most part has come true.  I know cobra will probably BAN me from this board for writing this crazy stuff out.  But looking at various computations and models using patterns/recognition i see SPX closing jan 2012 @ 555. :-(
      I use mechanical models to trade and hence thankfully i don’t follow my own analysis(patterns) to the T. :-)  But looking at patterns materialize it does seem like a pretty strong coordinated effort or else all these models wouldn’t be working the way they are.
      I really wish i am proven wrong this time.  But the first test would be testing 1000 within the next 1-2 weeks.  If we DO, then the 555 target WILL happen.  If we do NOT, then i will have to revisit my patterns and models to see whats next on the plate.

      • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

        Hmmm… well Jason, I have a final low of 34.65 spy, or about 346.50 spx.  The “when” part is unknown of course, but if we do hit that low then we should see the start of a new bull market that could take Gold to 10,000 plus in a big hurry.  One thing is certain now, this is truly going to be a “once in a lifetime” crash!  And don’t worry about Cobra banning you… snakes and dragons are friends and I’ll put in a good word for you. (LOL).  But seriously, Cobra and myself are probably 2 of the easiest going bloggers out there, as neither of us ever ban anyone… well, very rarely at least!

        P.S. Jason, I’m sure Cobra knows how manipulated and controlled this market is, but his site is a technical site… so he doesn’t talk about the darkside of trading like I do.  But make no mistake about it, Cobra is very wise of it (he has licked “the Red Pill”, but I swallowed it… LOL)

        • Jason_70

          :-)
          Thanks RED.  I was just kidding and u know that. :-)
          Cobra and yourself are arguably two of the most open minded bloggers out there and i appreciate that as everyone else man. :-)
          Let us see through the litmus test of 1000 in the next 2 weeks.  If that works out we will have a higher probability on my outcomes.  Otherwise i will have to look for patterns in Plan B. :-)

      • uempel

        Jason, I do hope the markets follow your model and that you make a killing.

        I’m writing here because I’m interested in the validity of long term prognosis in general: I’m very doubtful about it.

        Forecasts which are too specific in regard to price and time in the months ahead tend to be wrong.

        Why? Because TA never gives conclusive answers. There is always an alternative. TA might assert that the alternative is less likely, but the alternative is there, waiting at the next street corner.

        As there are many street corners/intersections along a planned route which lasts longer than a few weeks, liklihood that price will deviate some day, i.e. pick a side street and advance in a different direction, is quite high.

        At MIT they (used to?) teach that price direction ain’t predictable. They said that price can change its direction at every intersection… I’m not in that camp, but I sure do believe that forecasts into 2012 are still somewhat random…

        • Jason_70

          Uempel,

          What you are stating is absolutely correct.  TA and charts only use statistical (historical) data and show you probable picture and hence i only use TA for confirmations and not for trading.  For trading i use pattern matching/recognition using data mining techniques.  As you know, patterns are repetitive in nature.  In fact Support/Resistance levels or for that matter ANY TA indicator out there is simply a simple version of showing such repetitions.  For example, Support/resistance states there is a strong support/resistance based on what???  Previous price movements around the same price.  If you look carefully, it is nothing but an automated way of stating patterns that i/my programs try to find out through more manual/eye-balling if you will.
          This is the reason patterns have higher probability of predicting stuff with much higher probability than using TA which simply states “multiple” outcomes which once again come with their own probability and hence most of the times TA is not clear in stating what is coming.
          Having said that i don’t state that i have found the “holy grail” of investing and that i am 100% right.  NOBODY can ever get there, unless of course you are GS/BAC (with 100% accurate quarters, somehow, beating the statistical models for 2+ years). :-).
          Let us take cobra for example.  There is a huge fan following for him.  NOT because he does TA better than others.  There could be many who can do better than him.  But because he is UNCONVENTIONAL with his approach.  What is known to everyone doesn’t work.  Bullish/bearish crossovers, MACD crossing 0 line are things that were new in the 80′s and 90′s and they WORKED then.  Not now.  Because almost 95% of traders already know all of this.:-)
          I don’t think there can ever be a conclusive answer to where you are coming from, but hopefully some of the above may have answered what you were looking for.

          • uempel

            Sorry Jason, I don’t think you understand what I wrote. Maybe my comment was not lucid. I’ll try again: weather forecast for next week based on known weather patterns is quite reliable. But today’s weather forecast for January 2012, which is based on long term weather patterns, is far less reliable… Plain math.

            • Jason_70

              Uempel,

              I do realize what you were trying to state.  Understood that patterns could have higher probability predicting what will happen near term vs long term and hence if you see, i never state what my patterns look like in 2020.  Pattern matching is pretty much contained within broader pattern and that you cannot go beyond certain time frame anyways as pattern would get invalidated.  Hence, all that i state is 100% within the broader pattern matching scheme.  3-6 months is by no means long term.
              In any case, i think we both understand our own hypothesis of getting to what we want. :-)  Like It is really difficult for a new-comer to understand cobra’s investment style, likewise it is always difficult to understand even mature-traders style.  What and how i see things is always going to be different from what you see.  And do what i may, it won’t be easy for me to convinvce you or anyone else with my style. :-)
              Cheers man.

  • Anonymous

    Out of curiosity, what is the stoploss on the CIS?  It’s hard to tell on the chart (because of the red circle) whether it’s 19.01 or 19.31.

    • http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/ Cobra

      119.31 I think.

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