12/02/2011 Trading Signals


Unbelievable, another red Non Farm Payroll day which according to the chart below could mean a top of some kind is around.


And don’t forget what I said in the last night report, as all have been fulfilled, that indeed we have another reversal bar on the SPY chart, a more serious one though, because it’s not a black bar I kind hoped last night, it’s a bearish reversal bar.


That said, I don’t mean we’re doomed the next Monday, it’s just a warning, because nowadays it requires considerable amount of evidences to call a reversal, as the market tends to go extremely extreme and for now I see no bull extreme yet, so although apparently I’m bearish biased, but I’m very cautious in calling an immediate reversal here. Again, don’t front run the market unless you know what you are doing!

Cobra Impulse System still hasn’t decided to long or to short, but will try one more time on both side the next Monday. See table below for instructions. Enjoy your weekend!


16 Comments on "12/02/2011 Trading Signals"
  1. Comment left on:
    December 2, 2011 at 5:36 pm
    Donna Kline says:

    Thank you Cobra

  2. Comment left on:
    December 2, 2011 at 5:55 pm
    Anonymous says:

    Thanks Cobra.  Makes sense that we pull back at resistance.  I think Santa may take a wrong turn this year and miss his usual trip to NY. 

    Have a good weekend.

  3. Comment left on:
    December 2, 2011 at 6:12 pm
    Anonymous says:

    thx, ding

  4. Comment left on:
    December 3, 2011 at 1:55 am
    uempel says:

    Dear Reader

    If you park 10 million at GS you’ll get all kinds of things, e.g. predictions for 2012 and some smart trade suggestions.

    You can’t park money here at Cobra’s blog, but you do get the same information (see images) and much, much more – and come on, as a member you’ll be paying only $ 10 a month. Hey, that’s about one thousandth of what you’d have to pay to GS…

    Membership here is a square deal and I suggest you join this weekend. 

    Something else: Cobra has promised that if he makes enough money with his memebership scheme he’ll keep on fighting off takeover bids from the hedgies and that his membership fees will remain low.

    I guess you know what you have to do now.

    Enjoy your weekend, uempel

    • Comment left on:
      December 3, 2011 at 10:17 am
      Cobra says:

      Thanks Uempel. I wish Disqus has the “sticky” function so that I can always set your comment on the top. 🙂 Thanks really.

      • Comment left on:
        December 3, 2011 at 10:46 am
        uempel says:

        You are very welcome! I just checked the two scenarios that GS sees for the presidential election next year. Old charts show

        Dow Jones reaction 1936, reelection of FDR and tax hike in 1937.

        Dow Jones in 1992, Bush senior hiked taxes in 1990 and Clinton won the election in 1992

  5. Comment left on:
    December 3, 2011 at 3:00 am
    uempel says:

    Bullish percentages look good: BPNYA up 2.93%, BPCOMPQ up 0.60%, BPOEX up 6.78%, BPNDX up 5.26%, BPSPX up 4.05% – only BPINDU is flat.

    BPSPX chart suggests more upside next week, suggests too that bulls should be careful as from Thursday/Friday. Have a look.

    Something else: some readers think that ellipses are kind of weird. My answer: ellipses are based on exactly the same theoretical foundations as channels and many other technical tools – Newton’s 3rd mechanical law. Some people might argue that the applications of Newton’s law to price movement is ridiculous – but this argument rocks tha foundation of TA and suggests that TA is worthless.

  6. Comment left on:
    December 3, 2011 at 7:07 am
    HighRev says:

    I also think that the preponderance of evidence indicates that the probabilities favor more upside, and even higher probabilities for fast moving markets (regardless of direction).


  7. Comment left on:
    December 3, 2011 at 9:36 am
    Anonymous says:

    when 99er starts a weekend watering board i’ll add to this, but i’m a little concerned that the star doji top is so obvious.  it was made even more obvious by ending the day in the red.  i impulsively closed my long SPY calls and bought put protection for the weekend, but i’m looking back and starting to regret the trade (and it’s only 17 hours after the market closed! lol).

    yes it’s a NFP potential trend changing reversal day.  yes it’s a doji top pattern.  a little too obvious to make me feel comfortable…the bulls may have their way next week.

    on a supportive note, euro/usd really sold off.  it WAS a leading indicator, let’s see if that holds true come monday/tuesday. 

    • Comment left on:
      December 3, 2011 at 10:19 am
      Cobra says:

      Check the poll, maybe your suspicion is right. Too obvious to be true. 

      • Comment left on:
        December 3, 2011 at 10:25 am
        Anonymous says:

        black doji on DAX. past have all been reversals

      • Comment left on:
        December 3, 2011 at 10:59 am
        Rip Van Trader says:

        I voted yes on the poll because I think we’ll see an impressive, shortable dip for most of this week.  Probably most of the move will be over by opening on Monday as usual.

        I also think that this rally may have been the first leg of our C wave up.

        $10 is a great deal, Cobra.  I’m in.

    • Comment left on:
      December 3, 2011 at 10:30 am
      Anonymous says:

      PB on SPY from Nov 30. spy 120.0 is about 1200 spx, which is also 61.8% retracement level

    • Comment left on:
      December 3, 2011 at 1:36 pm
      HighRev says:

      . . . and then you’ve got this:  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eur-shorts-surge-back-17-month-highs-bearish-sentiment-returns

      There are negatives for equities, but I’m thinking the ST positives outweigh them.

      The European periphery (France too in this case) have a possible multi-year double bottom on the charts with only one weekly green coming off the recent retest of 2 month lows (which kind of makes it look like the “retest of lows” has already happened in Europe). The FTSE, AEX and DAX have bounced off of what may be a solid floor on multi-year consolidations above previous price support.

      These possible patterns may fail, but they are so big, and so bullish short term, that an immediate failure is a very low possibility IMO. The top of bear flags would be a minimum target in this situation, and that alone would take some time.

      That’s Europe. I’d have to say that the U.S. is stronger on an intermediate term relative basis thanks to having held up better on the sell-off. Then NYA is the closest to Europe, and that would be the stronger indices in Europe (a bit stronger than the FTSE). Check out how the RUT (another of the “weaker” U.S. indices) has bounced off the 200 week SMA!

  8. Comment left on:
    December 3, 2011 at 12:27 pm
    Anonymous says:

    Cobra, you often say if gap open above previous day high, the odds are that gap will not get closed. 
    If I am correct, does Friday’s gap close have any added significance?

  9. Comment left on:
    December 4, 2011 at 2:55 pm
    Anonymous says:


    As always, I’m grateful for all the excellent information that you share with the public.

    I have a question about the Impulse System.  Could you tell me if the returns it has generated since it started trading live have been in line with the backtested results?

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