SHORT-TERM: A TOP OF SOME KIND COULD BE IN
A top of some kind could have been in, need see whether SPY could make a higher high tomorrow to confirm of course. My FEELING is we might see another push up attempt tomorrow morning but such an attempt wouldn’t be able to make a higher high. If indeed the top was in, the pullback thereafter is short-term in nature or about to test the 11/25 lows, we’ll have to wait and see. Trading wise, in today’s Intraday Signals, I’ve made it very clear, don’t front run, unless you know what you’re doing. Calling a top is against the trend therefore not easy to be right. Then what to do when I call the top? Well, take partial profits, no aggressive long etc etc, because chances are I might be a little early in calling a top or bottom but eventually in most cases I’d be right eventually, so take a little caution when I’m calling a top or bottom won’t be a very bad idea.
List below are reasons why I think the top was in.
- CPCE trend line broken, frequent readers here should know this is a fairly reliable top signal. It needs to hold above the trend line tomorrow to confirm the top of course.
- VIX dipped below its BB bottom for 4 days in a row. From the chart below, clearly it means at least a short-term pullback. In addition, SPX made a new high today while VIX didn’t make a new low, such a divergence usually is a top sign.
- 3 reversal like bars in a row, should mean something.
- DAX had 2 black bars in row, so the chances of reversal should be even higher and we all know DAX leads.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH
See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.
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Chinese Transcript
SHORT-TERM: A TOP OF SOME KIND COULD BE IN
A top of some kind可能in了，当然要看明天是否还有higher high，我的感觉是明天大盘还会尝试上攻，不过这个上攻应该不会有higher high了。当然，如果真的top was in的话，接下来的回调是短期性质的还是去测试11/25的lows，还要再看。操作上，我在今天的Trading Signals里已经提了，除非你知道你在干什么，否则还是不要抢跑（做空）的好。猜顶是against trend，因此不容易准的。那，我喊顶的时候，该做啥呢？套点利啊，不要再多加long仓了啊，等等。老读者都知道，可能我喊顶或者底会早那么一点点，但是最终大多数情况下我都是会对的，所以看我喊了，操作上就小心点，应该没有大错了。
下面谈一下top was in的理由。
- CPCE trend line broken了，这个老读者都知道，是个很可靠的看顶信号，当然，也是要明天confirm，hold above trend line才算。
- VIX连着4天跌破BB bottom，从图上看，至少都是有短期回调的。此外，今天SPX新高，但是VIX却没有新低，这种divergence往往是top sign。
- 连着三根反转棒，多少也得给反转棒点面子哈。
- DAX连着两根黑棒棒，反转几率应该相当高了。我们都知道DAX leads，所以如果DAX反转的话，SPX也好不到哪去。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH
See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.
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| * = New update. |
Thanks Cobra!
Tom DeMark says 1330-1345 possible by Dec 21st (Bloomberg) before a rapid decline takes hold.
That will require the long-standing trendlines in 10 & 30 Yr US bond futures and CRB Index to be broken. It will also require the 200 day MA to be broken. If those breaks occur, we’ll see a gusher upward in risk assets.
If we’re following the post-Flash Crash intervention route though we should see a big reversal day tomorrow (Turnaround Tuesday?) and we can forget about seeing 1300+. No doubt lots will hang on ECB (8th), EU (9th), and Fed (13th).
i saw that prediction. he also said that thanksgiving gave him the strongest buy signal he’s seen in 40 years. i think we could test the nov. 25th low and STILL get a run to 1340 by the end of dec. that gives us 19 trading days…it only took 6 for us to go from 1158 to touch 1266. and initially 9 trading days to get from the previous touch of 1266 on nov. 11th to 1158 on nov. 25th.
soft prediction (forecasting is kind of a hopeless affair), pullback to 1190 then demark’s ramp to 1340-60.
How’s Demark’s accuracy? Is it similar to that of Prechter? Lol
After an 8% run following Thanksgiing week. He now says it was buy signal ??
I don’t like hero-worshipping. Facts are:
– short and medium term momentum are pointing upwards, so are bullish percentages
– today’s failure to break A) the 191/200 daily moving averages at 1262/64 and B) the upper limit of several channels/gridlines is less bullish…
maybe even 1360?!
Hi Cobra,
Thank you for your comments and your prediction. I have gone belt-and-suspenders conservative with my VooDoo TA and have one buy signal tomorrow for SRS at $39.86 – maybe my program is agreeing with you! Have a great week!
MK
Great as always Cobra. As I see It, SP is doing that lower high right now…