12/05/2011 Market Outlook (Was the top in?)


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SHORT-TERM: A TOP OF SOME KIND COULD BE IN

A top of some kind could have been in, need see whether SPY could make a higher high tomorrow to confirm of course. My FEELING is we might see another push up attempt tomorrow morning but such an attempt wouldn’t be able to make a higher high. If indeed the top was in, the pullback thereafter is short-term in nature or about to test the 11/25 lows, we’ll have to wait and see. Trading wise, in today’s Intraday Signals, I’ve made it very clear, don’t front run, unless you know what you’re doing. Calling a top is against the trend therefore not easy to be right. Then what to do when I call the top? Well, take partial profits, no aggressive long etc etc, because chances are I might be a little early in calling a top or bottom but eventually in most cases I’d be right eventually, so take a little caution when I’m calling a top or bottom won’t be a very bad idea.

SPYEvilPlan

List below are reasons why I think the top was in.

  • CPCE trend line broken, frequent readers here should know this is a fairly reliable top signal. It needs to hold above the trend line tomorrow to confirm the top of course.

CPCE

  • VIX dipped below its BB bottom for 4 days in a row. From the chart below, clearly it means at least a short-term pullback. In addition, SPX made a new high today while VIX didn’t make a new low, such a divergence usually is a top sign.

VIX

  • 3 reversal like bars in a row, should mean something.

SPYDaily

  • DAX had 2 black bars in row, so the chances of reversal should be even higher and we all know DAX leads.

DAXDaily

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: A TOP OF SOME KIND COULD BE IN

A top of some kind可能in了,当然要看明天是否还有higher high,我的感觉是明天大盘还会尝试上攻,不过这个上攻应该不会有higher high了。当然,如果真的top was in的话,接下来的回调是短期性质的还是去测试11/25的lows,还要再看。操作上,我在今天的Trading Signals里已经提了,除非你知道你在干什么,否则还是不要抢跑(做空)的好。猜顶是against trend,因此不容易准的。那,我喊顶的时候,该做啥呢?套点利啊,不要再多加long仓了啊,等等。老读者都知道,可能我喊顶或者底会早那么一点点,但是最终大多数情况下我都是会对的,所以看我喊了,操作上就小心点,应该没有大错了。

SPYEvilPlan

下面谈一下top was in的理由。

  • CPCE trend line broken了,这个老读者都知道,是个很可靠的看顶信号,当然,也是要明天confirm,hold above trend line才算。

CPCE

  • VIX连着4天跌破BB bottom,从图上看,至少都是有短期回调的。此外,今天SPX新高,但是VIX却没有新低,这种divergence往往是top sign。

VIX

  • 连着三根反转棒,多少也得给反转棒点面子哈。

SPYDaily

  • DAX连着两根黑棒棒,反转几率应该相当高了。我们都知道DAX leads,所以如果DAX反转的话,SPX也好不到哪去。

DAXDaily

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.
  • d w

    Thanks Cobra!

  • Anonymous

    Tom DeMark says 1330-1345 possible by Dec 21st (Bloomberg) before a rapid decline takes hold.
     
    That will require the long-standing trendlines in 10 & 30 Yr US bond futures and CRB Index to be broken.  It will also require the 200 day MA to be broken.  If those breaks occur, we’ll see a gusher upward in risk assets.

    If we’re following the post-Flash Crash intervention route though we should see a big reversal day tomorrow (Turnaround Tuesday?) and we can forget about seeing 1300+.  No doubt lots will hang on ECB (8th), EU (9th), and Fed (13th).

    • Anonymous

      i saw that prediction.  he also said that thanksgiving gave him the strongest buy signal he’s seen in 40 years.  i think we could test the nov. 25th low and STILL get a run to 1340 by the end of dec.  that gives us 19 trading days…it only took 6 for us to go from 1158 to touch 1266.  and initially 9 trading days to get from the previous touch of 1266 on nov. 11th to 1158 on nov. 25th.

      soft prediction (forecasting is kind of a hopeless affair), pullback to 1190 then demark’s ramp to 1340-60.

      • Anonymous

        How’s Demark’s accuracy? Is it similar to that of Prechter? Lol

      • Anonymous

        After an 8% run following Thanksgiing week. He now says it was buy signal ??

    • uempel

      I don’t like hero-worshipping. Facts are:
      – short and medium term momentum are pointing upwards, so are bullish percentages
      – today’s failure to break A) the 191/200 daily moving averages at 1262/64 and B) the upper limit of several channels/gridlines is less bullish…

  • Anonymous

    maybe even 1360?!

  • Hi Cobra,

    Thank you for your comments and your prediction. I have gone belt-and-suspenders conservative with my VooDoo TA and have one buy signal tomorrow for SRS at $39.86 – maybe my program is agreeing with you! Have a great week!

    MK

  • Michel G

    Great as always Cobra. As I see It, SP is doing that lower high right now…

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