12/16/2011 Trading Signals


THE SHORT-TERM MODEL BELIEVES THE TRND IS DOWN HOLDING BOTH LONG (TRAPPED) AND SHORT THE WEEKEND

The bottom line, I believe the selling isn’t over yet.

In case you want to know, because people always like to ask, I don’t see either bullish or bearish edge the next Monday.

3

The short setup still not confirmed today but Cobra Impulse System will try to short again the next Monday, if SPY drops below today’s low and close in red. Because SPY had a dividend today, the price is not adjusted yet, so I used the SSO daily chart below in which you can see a little different than the SPY chart but the idea is the same. Enjoy your weekend!

1
2

37 Comments on "12/16/2011 Trading Signals"
  1. Comment left on:
    December 16, 2011 at 5:26 pm
    Anonymous says:

    Looks like Cobra Impulse caught the exact top with its last buy signal, so I’ll be looking to start closing shorts when the impulse system begins to go short. Probably within a day or two of a bottom. I see that nearly every short signal this year caught an exact bottom within a few days.

    • Comment left on:
      December 16, 2011 at 5:29 pm
      Cobra says:

      Haha, never mind, you must be new here. I believe if you followed the system long enough, you wouldn’t say things like this. Believe or not, the system only went wrong twice this year. It does have 80%+ winning rate. You have to decide when to take partial profits of course.

    • Comment left on:
      December 16, 2011 at 6:05 pm
      Anonymous says:

      Cobra is too much of a gentleman to be rude to any of his subscribers or guests, so let me do the honors for him by saying “You need to get a lIfe”.  Cobra is an asset and you are an ASS!

      • Comment left on:
        December 16, 2011 at 7:03 pm
        Cobra says:

        Thanks for defending me. But I think guestCPC was kidding. And I wasn’t unhappy too. Every system has its worst time, so it’s normal sometimes the system does act strangely.

        Thanks again. 🙂

        • Comment left on:
          December 16, 2011 at 8:51 pm
          Anonymous says:

          hey cobra, can u give us an update on how the rydex bull/bear cashflow chart looks? thx

          • Comment left on:
            December 16, 2011 at 10:58 pm
            Cobra says:

            Neutral.

    • Comment left on:
      December 16, 2011 at 8:45 pm
      sweenrose says:

      I think that guestCPC should put his money where his mouth is and trade against the system with massive leverage.  

  2. Comment left on:
    December 16, 2011 at 5:43 pm
    Anonymous says:

    thx,ding

  3. Comment left on:
    December 16, 2011 at 5:53 pm
    Anonymous says:

    Cobra: why are you seasonality bullish when your system confirmed sell, which one would you follow?

    • Comment left on:
      December 16, 2011 at 7:05 pm
      Cobra says:

      Forget about seasonality.

      • Comment left on:
        December 16, 2011 at 7:57 pm
        Anonymous says:

        Thanks Cobra.

  4. Comment left on:
    December 16, 2011 at 6:05 pm
    HighRev says:
    • Comment left on:
      December 17, 2011 at 5:39 am
      HighRev says:

      More of the same on the weekly time frame, this time with the DOW and the RUT (take note that we’re taking into account BOTH large-caps and small-caps here, and that they look pretty darned similar).

      The chart legend is the same as that for the SPX posted above.

  5. Comment left on:
    December 16, 2011 at 8:10 pm
    99er says:

    Update

    NQ http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/nq_16.html

    A topping tail and a possible H&S within a down channel suggest more selling ahead.

    Have a nice weekend!

  6. Comment left on:
    December 17, 2011 at 2:16 am
    Rip Van Trader says:

    Daily SPX candles for yesterday and today look very sad, little hanging men under the 20 DMA, but as the old Russian proverb goes, “Beware the limping wolf”, so I am flat for the weekend.

    My canary in the coal mine is the 10 year T bill, facing multiple resistances between 131 and 134, not sure if they will make it through all of them to 157 or so as promised by the giant triangle in the monthly charts.  Then again, hitting 157 would entail interest rates going negative, but why not?

    Kind of hard to judge the value of T bills with the Fed being the principal customer and all, but if crappy little Germany with its stupid fiscal conservatism, gold stores, and no military to speak of can sell bonds at 1%, then certainly the most prosperous, mighty, and did I say free nation on the face of the earth not to mention in all of history ought to be able to sell theirs at maybe 1.45%.  C’mon.

    Seriously, the prospect of the bond market topping soon raises the specter of the stock market bottoming soon.  Something for bears to keep in mind.

    However, bonds and stocks are not always opposites.  I remember my father saying many years ago, might have been the 70s, “First the bond market crashed, and 9 days later stocks crashed.”  My chart program is not good enough to work when this happened, but it is easy to believe that jubilation over falling bond prices would be short-lived because of the ominous national overtones.

    Cobra, do you have any charts showing the relationship of stock and bond prices over long periods of time?

    • Comment left on:
      December 17, 2011 at 3:04 am
      uempel says:

      I like the Russian proverb…

      • Comment left on:
        December 17, 2011 at 10:46 am
        Anonymous says:

        i like the russian proverb as well.  i also like how you pointed out a very important consideration for all traders.  just because a relationship has been correlated (inversely or not) over your lifetime as a trader, does NOT mean that relationship will last or be the same in the future.  it’s difficult to avoid spurious correlations as that’s the foundation of “finding order among the chaos” (finding reason in the randomness).  however, the wise trader is always aware of the tenuous relationships he associates in his trading.

        • Comment left on:
          December 17, 2011 at 11:21 am
          Rip Van Trader says:

          Thanks!  I think I made it up, but nothing is new under the sun so who knows?

          My mental models for the market are the stagflation years of the 30s and 70s, with inflation covering deteriorating intrinsic value.  I’m just trying to ride the swings.  Hard to do when the most action happens after hours, which in itself is suspicious.

        • Comment left on:
          December 18, 2011 at 1:55 am
          uempel says:

          Yeah, the more I grapple with technical analysis the more I see that it’s applied physics…

    • Comment left on:
      December 17, 2011 at 5:03 am
      HighRev says:

      Those last two candlesticks can also be seen as inverted hammers in consolidation under resistance. Typical in ST bottoming as traders take on positions at the lows only to liquidate at intraday highs, and then rinse and repeat. It could be a bear flag, and it could be the initial signs of a ST floor. I don’t give that much weight to any candlestick pattern in isolation. It’s very important to put them into the larger TA context (big difference between a hammer and a hanged man for example – both are the same stick, what varies is the context in which they find themselves – and you can apply that to just about any stick in the books), and then to wait for confirmation.

      • Comment left on:
        December 17, 2011 at 11:01 am
        Rip Van Trader says:

        Bonds and USD both broke important declining resistance last week and USD is backtesting to 80.  They say that the best moves don’t backtest, so I am watching for a strong reversal there.  A failure at 80 and the bulls are back in the driver’s seat.

        There has been a lot of weakness in the USD/EUR pair, including a breakdown of a huge multiyear triangle in April.  Equity bears need to be cautious in this regard.  Earnings need to have a larger bear role, so far not helping much.

        And how high can bonds go with all this currency devaluation?  TNX is displaying bullish rumblings in the MACD department.  I do not think the ruse will last too much longer.  But then, when rates go higher, massive sovereign default will not be far behind.

        Bullish or bearish, there’s plenty of reason to be cautious!

        • Comment left on:
          December 17, 2011 at 1:50 pm
          HighRev says:

          And how right you are in all you just said!!

          Absolutely!!

          I couldn’t agree more.

          Thanks!

      • Comment left on:
        December 18, 2011 at 11:47 am
        Rip Van Trader says:

        Thanks, Cobra!  That is a fascinating puzzle of a chart.  I stared at it for quite a long time today, considering possibilities for each component.

        I will never get why Treasury rates are so low.  Must be the threatened implosion of the banking system.

  7. Comment left on:
    December 17, 2011 at 2:45 am
    uempel says:

    I don’t think Friday’s Triple Witch action is significant: BPNYA up 1.01%, BPCOMPQ up 0.27%, BPNDX up 2.0%, BPSPX up 0.34% and the big cap indices BPOEX and BPINDU are both flat.

    As to the sectors: BPFINA (Financials) up 4.55%, BPHEAL (Healthcare) up 3.57% and BPINFO (Technology) down 2.00% (this does not make sense because BPNDX is up 2%…), all other sectors flat.

    BPSPX chart puts forward a trading strategy for the last 9 days of December, check it out:

    • Comment left on:
      December 17, 2011 at 8:11 am
      R M says:

      Thanks Uempel

      • Comment left on:
        December 17, 2011 at 8:43 am
        uempel says:

        60 min is flashing the same signal:

        • Comment left on:
          December 17, 2011 at 5:39 pm
          Anonymous says:

          I like that. Intriguing chart.

  8. Comment left on:
    December 17, 2011 at 7:13 am
    HighRev says:

    AB=CD possibility within a favorable market structure environment.

  9. Comment left on:
    December 17, 2011 at 8:03 am
    Anonymous says:

    If no downgrade by Monday morning look for big gap up.

    • Comment left on:
      December 19, 2011 at 7:54 am
      Anonymous says:

      small gap up

  10. Comment left on:
    December 17, 2011 at 12:31 pm
    sweenrose says:

    For Monday’s possible CIS trade, will you be using SPY or SSO?

    • Comment left on:
      December 17, 2011 at 5:39 pm
      Cobra says:

      SSO.

    • Comment left on:
      December 17, 2011 at 5:44 pm
      Cobra says:

      Usually Stockcharts would adjust the SPY price on Monday, but I don’t think Worden (the CIS is based on the Worden software) would do that in the next 3 months. So kind of awkward time now.

  11. .
    December 17, 2011 at 3:34 pm

    […] System will try to short again the next Monday, if SPY drops below today’s low and close in red. [Read the Rest] Cobra’s Market ViewA Fun Fact… This day in history… Related posts:12/15/2011 Trading […]

  12. .
    December 18, 2011 at 1:12 am

    […] 12/16/2011 Trading Signals | Cobra's Market View […]

  13. Comment left on:
    December 18, 2011 at 9:54 am
    Anonymous says:

    Cobra on the entry and exit  on demo acct. for short-term model or trigger by?
    Thanks
    PS Signed up in Nov….It is very helpful

Comments have been disabled here. This discussion has ended.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.