02/29/2012 Featured Stock: AAPL

I think a pullback of some kind should be close for AAPL:

Gap up, Doji plus volume surge, so it could be an exhaustion gap.
ChiOsc is way too high. See dashed red lines for what happened in the past when ChiOsc is this high.
Could be Bump and Run Reversal, i.e. the recent push up is much steeper than the previous push up channel which usually is not a good sign.
iPad 3 release is on March 7, take a look at what happened after iPad 2 was released on March 2, 2011.

Please remember my rule for shorting stocks, so far AAPL has no lower high and no lower low, so, yes, it might pullback but it’s not a short at least before a Trading Reversals setup is triggered.

An interesting thing about AAPL being the 6th stocks in the $500 Billion Club is all the previous 5 stocks were down a lot as soon as they stepped into the $500 Billion Club. The following statistics are from Sentimentrader.

Another interesting thing is the SPX was at or very near a 52-week high at the point each of the stocks reached $500 billion. As we can see from the chart below, also from Sentimentrader, every time, the index was within days of peaking.

*All the contents provided on this website are for information only, never should be taken as investment advice.

17 Comments on "02/29/2012 Featured Stock: AAPL"

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Comment left on:
February 29, 2012 at 10:42 pm

oldpigwang says:

Thx, Cobra.
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Comment left on:
February 29, 2012 at 10:51 pm

brancato123 says:

Thanks Cobra,

Joined yesterday after strong recommendation from Andy Zaky at Bullish Cross

Brancato123
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  Comment left on:
  February 29, 2012 at 10:53 pm
  
  Cobra says:
  
  Thanks. I own Andy a big thanks.
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Comment left on:
February 29, 2012 at 11:08 pm

andyzaky says:

Great job Cobra! This is a great supplement to what I’ve already put together.
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  Comment left on:
  February 29, 2012 at 11:28 pm
  
  Cobra says:
  
  Sorry, Andy, I just sent you an email. I didn’t know you registered already. I know what to do now. Thanks for referring your readers to me.
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  Comment left on:
  February 29, 2012 at 11:35 pm
  
  Cobra says:
  
  You’re all set. Thanks again. Good night!
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Comment left on:
March 1, 2012 at 9:59 am

davegordon14 says:

Cobra – this is a great analysis. I’m new to the site (also on Andy Zacky’s recommendation) and have found a ton of very useful and informative info throughout the site. Keep up the good work!
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  Comment left on:
  March 1, 2012 at 11:28 am
  
  Cobra says:
  
  Thanks.
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Comment left on:
March 1, 2012 at 10:59 am

EMU2012 says:

Cobra….good stuff…Here on the recommendation from Andy. You and Andy should combine forces….nothing would be able to stop you guys! 🙂
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  Comment left on:
  March 1, 2012 at 11:28 am
  
  Cobra says:
  
  Thanks.
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Comment left on:
March 1, 2012 at 2:43 pm

Tracy Louv says:

new to site also on Andy’s recommendation.
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  Comment left on:
  March 1, 2012 at 3:01 pm
  
  Cobra says:
  
  Thanks. I saw you on Twitter too, it’s on Feb 28, you followed my twitter, I still remember your avatar, nice one. 🙂
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March 2, 2012 at 5:56 pm

03/02/2012 Sentiment Poll | Cobra's Market View says:

[…] here’s a little I think about AAPL: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/02292012-aapl-review/. You also will find something about the other 6 $500B stocks before the AAPL there. *All the […]
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Comment left on:
March 3, 2012 at 8:01 am

adelzurob says:

Another Andy sub. Thanks.
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  Comment left on:
  March 3, 2012 at 11:13 am
  
  Cobra says:
  
  Thanks. Welcome aboard!
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Comment left on:
March 4, 2012 at 11:30 am

Martin M says:

Thanks, Cobra. Love
your analysis and I looking forward to a great and profitable
relationship. Some of my own thoughts on
AAPL.

1. In my humble
opinion… When a bullish trend is this strong we
don’t look for shorts we look for longs.
I’m really kicking myself for only looking for short opportunities in
AAPL these last couple of months. On my only APPL trade this year, I did
manage to make 300% on puts overnight on Feb 16, but that was only crumbs. If I would have instead been looking for long
setups and buying weekly calls then my trading account could possibly have
doubled. This is very fundamental Al
Brooks trading philosophy.

2. AAPL is extremely
strong on the weekly and monthly charts and being in an extremely strong bull
microchannel this can go much higher. The weekly is particularly scary for
bears. No sigh of a significant channel
line break or overshoot. No price action
weakness on AAPL’s weekly chart at all.
I don’t use indicators so I can’t comment on those, but I have no doubt they are extremely oversold.

3. Today, Sun March
4, AAPL is showing an iiii pattern on the 60 min, extending from a well-formed long base which is
now touching a very bullish 20 EMA. Possible
a great setup for the bulls. If I see
bullish strength on Monday, then I’ll be buying the weekly calls. I’m no longer fighting such a strong trend.

4. Like the rest of
you, I will be eagerly waiting for short opportunities. I would love to short this stock when the
time is right, but that could be weeks or months down the road. Look for
climatic behavior; possibly a strong channel line overshoot on the weekly, then
a strong bear reversal bar. Then it
would be time for the bears to come out of hibernation.

Martin
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  Comment left on:
  March 4, 2012 at 11:35 am
  
  Cobra says:
  
  Thanks for the update. I’m not looking for short opportunity. I just think a pullback is possible now. That said, the up momentum is strong, so the surprise is always with the trend, and this is why I said, yes, I do expect a pullback of some kind but it’s not a short (as you never know when the surprise comes in to surprises us).

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