02/29/2012 Featured Stock: AAPL

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:

I think a pullback of some kind should be close for AAPL:

  1. Gap up, Doji plus volume surge, so it could be an exhaustion gap.
  2. ChiOsc is way too high. See dashed red lines for what happened in the past when ChiOsc is this high.
  3. Could be Bump and Run Reversal, i.e. the recent push up is much steeper than the previous push up channel which usually is not a good sign.
  4. iPad 3 release is on March 7, take a look at what happened after iPad 2 was released on March 2, 2011.


Please remember my rule for shorting stocks, so far AAPL has no lower high and no lower low, so, yes, it might pullback but it’s not a short at least before a Trading Reversals setup is triggered.

An interesting thing about AAPL being the 6th stocks in the $500 Billion Club is all the previous 5 stocks were down a lot as soon as they stepped into the $500 Billion Club. The following statistics are from Sentimentrader.


Another interesting thing is the SPX was at or very near a 52-week high at the point each of the stocks reached $500 billion.  As we can see from the chart below, also from Sentimentrader, every time, the index was within days of peaking.


  • oldpigwang

    Thx, Cobra.

  • Thanks Cobra,

    Joined yesterday after strong recommendation from Andy Zaky at Bullish Cross


    • Thanks. I own Andy a big thanks.

  • andyzaky

    Great job Cobra!  This is a great supplement to what I’ve already put together. 

    • Sorry, Andy, I just sent you an email. I didn’t know you registered already. I know what to do now. Thanks for referring your readers to me.

    • You’re all set. Thanks again. Good night!

  • davegordon14

    Cobra – this is a great analysis.  I’m new to the site (also on Andy Zacky’s recommendation) and have found a ton of very useful and informative info throughout the site.  Keep up the good work!

  • EMU2012

    Cobra….good stuff…Here on the recommendation from Andy. You and Andy should combine forces….nothing would be able to stop you guys!  🙂

  • new to site also on Andy’s recommendation.

    • Thanks. I saw you on Twitter too, it’s on Feb 28, you followed my twitter, I still remember your avatar, nice one. 🙂

  • Pingback: 03/02/2012 Sentiment Poll | Cobra's Market View()

  • adelzurob

    Another Andy sub. Thanks.

    • Thanks. Welcome aboard!

  • Thanks, Cobra.  Love
    your analysis and I looking forward to a great and profitable
    relationship.  Some of my own thoughts on

    1.  In my humble
    opinion…  When a bullish trend is this strong we
    don’t look for shorts we look for longs. 
    I’m really kicking myself for only looking for short opportunities in
    AAPL these last couple of months.  On my only APPL trade this year, I did
    manage to make 300% on puts overnight on Feb 16, but that was only crumbs.  If I would have instead been looking for long
    setups and buying weekly calls then my trading account could possibly have
    doubled.  This is very fundamental Al
    Brooks trading philosophy.

     2.  AAPL is extremely
    strong on the weekly and monthly charts and being in an extremely strong bull
    microchannel this can go much higher.  The weekly is particularly scary for
    bears.  No sigh of a significant channel
    line break or overshoot.  No price action
    weakness on AAPL’s weekly chart at all.  
    I don’t use indicators so I can’t comment on those, but I have no doubt they are extremely oversold.

     3.   Today, Sun March
    4, AAPL is showing an iiii pattern on the 60 min, extending from a well-formed long base which is
    now touching a very bullish 20 EMA.  Possible
    a great setup for the bulls.  If I see
    bullish strength on Monday, then I’ll be buying the weekly calls.  I’m no longer fighting such a strong trend.

    4.  Like the rest of
    you, I will be eagerly waiting for short opportunities.  I would love to short this stock when the
    time is right, but that could be weeks or months down the road. Look for
    climatic behavior; possibly a strong channel line overshoot on the weekly, then
    a strong bear reversal bar.  Then it
    would be time for the bears to come out of hibernation.


    • Thanks for the update. I’m not looking for short opportunity. I just think a pullback is possible now. That said, the up momentum is strong, so the surprise is always with the trend, and this is why I said, yes, I do expect a pullback of some kind but it’s not a short (as you never know when the surprise comes in to surprises us).

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