02/04/2015 Market Outlook (NR7)


THE BOTTOM LINE:

  1. A pullback might be due.
  2. Potential trading setup is to buy NR7 breakout.

 

The sharp pullback before close can not be trusted, and if this is still the past, I wouldn’t be surprised to see SPY gap up above today’s high tomorrow morning. However, chart pattern wise, a pullback should be due. Two reasons:

  • Could be a 3 Push Up (red arrows), so 2 legged pullback might be due. Target at least the EMA(20) blue curve.

EvilPlan60min

  • Two reversal like bars on DAX daily chart so a pullback might be due. In addition, don’t forget that DAX now is too high above its MA(200) – if in this world only one indicator still works then it must be the price cannot deviate too far from its moving averages. A pullback on DAX at least would make SPY gap down tomorrow morning.

DAXDaily

DAXTooHighAboveMA200

Trading wise, 3 options:

  • It’s NR7 today, so break above today’s high tomorrow is buy, stop loss below today’s low, mini target 1x stop loss size (tinted area). It’s not H1 long because I don’t read the previous 2 days up as big enough to be qualified as bull spike, however it’d be a surprise to break above today’s high tomorrow, so I’ll say the setup has 51% chances of being profitable. Again, generally, the successful rate of a setup ranges from 40% to 60%, so don’t waste time to wait for a 80% chances setup which is very rare if not non-exist.
  • Break the blue line below is short. I’ve been blah blah about this setup for awhile so no more blah blah here, please check the annotation in the chart below for more details. The setup is very unlikely triggered tomorrow, so it’s just a good to know for now.

TradingH1

  • Short QQQ 4th touch breakdown still is valid. The setup is very unlikely triggered tomorrow, so it’s just a good to know for now.

QQQDaily


CHINESE TRANSLATION

 

THE BOTTOM LINE:

  1. 可能要有回调了。
  2. 可能的操作是buy NR7 breakout。

 

今天收盘前的突然下跌不可信,要在过去,明天早上大高开在今天的high以上,我都不会觉得奇怪。不过,从图形的角度看,是应该要回调了。两个理由:

  • SPY 60 min是3 Push Up(红色箭头),所以可能意味着两腿的回调。目标至少是EMA(20),蓝色曲线。

EvilPlan60min

  • DAX连着两个反转棒,应该要回调一下了。另外,不要忘了,DAX目前已经离MA(200)过远了。如果这个世界仅剩下一个indicator还工作的话,那就是股价不能无限制的远离均线。DAX回调至少会导致SPY明天低开。

DAXDaily

DAXTooHighAboveMA200

操作,有三个选项:

  • 今天是个NR7,因此明天high过今天的high是买,stop loss在今天的low以下,mini target 1x stop loss size(高亮区)。这个不是H1 long,因为我不认为两天的反弹强到可以称之为bull spike的程度,不过明天如果能high过今天的high,是surprise,因此我认为这个buy NR7 breakout有51%的机会。注意,一般setup的机会都是在40%到60%之间,不要指望会有啥80%的setup。
  • 下破底下的蓝线是short,这个我一直在说,就不解释了,自己看图上的注释吧。这个setup明天就触发的可能性几乎没有,所以属于知道一下就好。

TradingH1

  • Short QQQ 4th touch breakdown继续有效。这个setup明天就触发的可能性几乎没有,所以属于知道一下就好。

QQQDaily

6 Comments on "02/04/2015 Market Outlook (NR7)"
  1. Comment left on:
    February 4, 2015 at 8:17 pm
    Al_Dente_Here says:

    SPY “HARAMI CROSS” candle
    “This is a major bearish reversal pattern, which is even more significant than a regular Bearish Harami.”
    “…confirmation level will be defined as the last close [204.06] or the midpoint of the white body of the first candlestick [about 203.98], whichever is lower. Prices should cross below these levels for confirmation.”

    “The stop loss level is defined as the higher of the last two highs [205.38]. Following the bearish signal, if prices go up instead of going down, and close or make two consecutive daily highs above the stop loss level, while no bullish pattern is detected, then the stop loss is triggered.”

  2. Comment left on:
    February 4, 2015 at 11:13 pm
    Fran Barnes says:

    Cobra, nice new lesson on NR4 – 7.
    Market EOD reaction to Eurozone-Greece split. Maybe we get another NR4. 🙁

    • Comment left on:
      February 4, 2015 at 11:42 pm
      Cobra says:

      NR4 on stockcharts is wrong. Should be NR4 and inside bar, so actually NR4i, but if NR7, then inside bar is not required. Also the trend leading to the NR4i and NR7 is important. When trend is up, you don’t want to short NR4i and NR7 breakdown.

      • Comment left on:
        February 5, 2015 at 12:14 am
        Fran Barnes says:

        Ummm okay but pertinent to now, are we to consider that we are still, after all this sideways stuff, could even be called a NR20, in a bull trend???

  3. Comment left on:
    February 5, 2015 at 4:52 am
    uempel says:

    For those readers who trade FDAX: my view is that DAX 11020 is a viable target this week. And should the market overreact to some news Cobra’s zig-zag up to 11150 is in the cards.

    As apple melau points out this 11150 level is not only a zig-zag target, there’s Fib resistance up there too. Whatever – I tend to closely monitor the weekly/daily DAX stochastics and these suggest that a reversal is not too far away. My favorite downside target is 10500ish.

  4. Comment left on:
    February 5, 2015 at 5:16 am
    uempel says:

    DAX: I see that Cobra makes his zig-zag on a log chart. Here the zig-zag on a linear chart. It suggests that the recent high at 10985 might have been some kind of top …

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