12/08/2016 Next Day Edges


No idea up or down tomorrow. A few sell short at close today HOLD until test condition invalid cases shown below, none are good setup, so I don’t see bear’s edges despite seemingly the market is overbought.

  • SPY up 5 days in a row, short at close today, HOLD until the very first day SPY closes down, you have 67% chances to make money with profit factor 1.7 which is not perfect.

3

  • Both SPY and VIX up 2 days in a row, short SPY at close today, HOLD until the very first day SPY and VIX move in different direction, you have 61% chances to make money with profit factor 1.6 which is not perfect.

2

  • SPY RSI(2) above 98 for 1 day, short SPY at close today, HOLD until the very first day RSI(2) below 98 (i.e. SPY closes down), you have 74% chances to make money with profit factor 1.4 which is not good.

4

Routine statistics about SPY up 5 days in a row. This is about tomorrow, not HOLD until.

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2 Comments on "12/08/2016 Next Day Edges"
  1. Comment left on:
    December 8, 2016 at 5:39 pm
    uempel says:

    So far no reason to play the short side. BPs wildly to the upside:

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$BPNYA,$BPCOMPQ,$BPOEX,$BPNDX,$BPSPX,$BPINDU,$BPFINA,$BPENER|B|

    Monthly SPX shows resistance up at 2255, but so far nothing suggests to exit bullish positions.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/120b214e808c741050eb3f69cf8339d4525cbe09b3d98bc438526e8965001488.png

  2. Comment left on:
    December 8, 2016 at 6:48 pm
    uempel says:

    Monthly SPX chart without SPX – only momentum and MA 34. It suggests that after a 10-year period of weakness SPX has bottomed out.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/435d38726073758c46df07aeb1892c59a4b19c2f54cb22c893b88dcbec32025d.png

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