A single day drop doesn’t mean anything, a bear strong follow through tomorrow is needed. So the question is, whether we’ll see a strong follow through tomorrow?
I believe we’ll have the follow through. See the chart below, the up legs are getting weaker and weaker which usually means the down leg would get stronger and stronger, so tomorrow should break below the pink tined area, which if indeed, then at least 60% chances the “bigger pullback” after a 3 Push Up pattern may have started.
However, neither can the above conclusion explain the statistics that SPY still owes us a higher high, nor the Bearish Engulfing today means 70% chances up tomorrow. Personally, I’m more inclined to believe the above conclusion therefore decided to ignore all the statistics. However, you have the rights to know that based on the statistics, tomorrow should rebound and perhaps the higher high (Apr 29 high at $294.8) shall be fulfilled in the coming days. Well, which one is right, my analysis or the statistics, we’ll know tomorrow.
一天的下跌说明不了什么问题，明天熊熊必须有strong follow through才行。那么明天会不会有strong follow through呢？
我认为会有。见下图，up leg一条比一条弱，这往往意味着down leg会越来越强，因此明天应该直接跌破粉色区域。如果真是这样的话，那么至少60%的机会，3 Push Up后的比较大的回调已经开始了。