05/12/2020 Market Outlook (Follow Through Wanted)


A single day drop doesn’t mean anything, a bear strong follow through tomorrow is needed. So the question is, whether we’ll see a strong follow through tomorrow?

I believe we’ll have the follow through. See the chart below, the up legs are getting weaker and weaker which usually means the down leg would get stronger and stronger, so tomorrow should break below the pink tined area, which if indeed, then at least 60% chances the “bigger pullback” after a 3 Push Up pattern may have started.

DownBigTomorrow

However, neither can the above conclusion explain the statistics that SPY still owes us a higher high, nor the Bearish Engulfing today means 70% chances up tomorrow. Personally, I’m more inclined to believe the above conclusion therefore decided to ignore all the statistics. However, you have the rights to know that based on the statistics, tomorrow should rebound and perhaps the higher high (Apr 29 high at $294.8) shall be fulfilled in the coming days. Well, which one is right, my analysis or the statistics, we’ll know tomorrow.

BullishEngulfing


CHINESE TRANSLATION

 

一天的下跌说明不了什么问题,明天熊熊必须有strong follow through才行。那么明天会不会有strong follow through呢?

我认为会有。见下图,up leg一条比一条弱,这往往意味着down leg会越来越强,因此明天应该直接跌破粉色区域。如果真是这样的话,那么至少60%的机会,3 Push Up后的比较大的回调已经开始了。

DownBigTomorrow

不过,以上的推断,不能解释SPY还欠我们一个higher high的统计,也不能解释今天是个Bearish Engulfing,因此明天其实有70%的几率涨的可能。我个人更看重上面的分析,因此决定忽略还没有涨完的统计。但是,大家有权知道,根据统计,明天应该反弹,此后几天实现higher high(高于4月29号的high at $294.88)。统计对,还是我的分析对,明天我们就知道了。

BullishEngulfing

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