11/26/2021 Market Outlook (VIX Up Big)


Likely lower low ahead, expect a rebound as early as the next Monday, then probably another leg down thereafter.

Forecast

The chart below explained why lower low ahead and a rebound as early as the next Monday: VIX rose 47%+ in a single day, 5 out of 5 a lower low ahead and 83% chances up the next day with the profit factor at the whooping 5.3. So Monday we could see a lower low first then rebound to close up. The chart is very large, you may need click twice in order to see the original.

VIXUpHuge

Two reasons why there’s another leg down after the rebound:

  • VIX is way too high above its BB top which means a rebound (which fits for the forecast of a Monday rebound above) first then another leg down thereafter.

VIXTooHighAboveBB

  • It’s a weekly bearish engulfing which means 71% chances more down ahead. The chart is very large, you may need click twice in order to see the original.

WeeklyBearishEngulfing


CHINESE TRANSLATION

 

多半还有lower low,最快周一反弹,反弹结束后可能还有一腿下跌。

Forecast

多半还有lower low以及最快周一反弹的理由见下图:VIX一天里涨了47%,此后5 out of 5都有lower low,但是第二天反弹的几率是83%且profit factor高达5.3。所以周一可能先lower low,然后反弹收涨。图很大,可能要点击两次才能看原图。

VIXUpHuge

反弹结束后可能还有一腿下跌的理由有二:

  • VIX超出其BB top很多往往意味着反弹(符合上面最快周一反弹的说法),反弹之后多半还有一腿下跌。

VIXTooHighAboveBB

  • 本周是个weekly bearish engulfing,这意味着71%的机会还有的跌。图很大,可能要点击两次才能看原图。

WeeklyBearishEngulfing

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