SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE PULLBACK AHEAD

No solid evidences, just my wildest guess, could be more pullbacks ahead. Three reasons:

  • As mentioned in the yesterday's report, a Major Accumulation Day right after a Major Distribution Day usually means the yesterday’s low will be revisited soon.
  • Generally, the pullback during an up swing shall become larger and larger (as the up momentum inevitably weakening), so at least the size of pullback 3 should equal to the size of pullback 2. Forget about the “phantom bar”, we’re not there yet.

SPY15min

  • VIX higher high while no lower low on SPX, usually VIX told the truth, so cannot exclude the possibility that the top was in already.

VIXLeads

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY BUT MAINTAIN SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET AT 1,000

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, October expiration day, Dow down 5 straight and 6 of last 7.

See 09/30 Market Outlook for October day to day seasonality chart.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term *DOWN? 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE PULLBACK AHEAD

没有什么铁证,仅仅是我猜,可能还没有跌完,理由有三:

SPY15min

  • VIX higher high,但是SPX却没有lower low,一般VIX leads,因此不能排除短期顶已经过了的可能性。

VIXLeads

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY BUT MAINTAIN SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET AT 1,000

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, October expiration day, Dow down 5 straight and 6 of last 7.

See 09/30 Market Outlook for October day to day seasonality chart.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term *DOWN? 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.