02/02/2009 Market Recap: Anticipating Firework


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Market kept dropping but CPC readings were quite bullish, almost around 0.8 the whole day today. I guess this implies that many are anticipating a FIREWORD from the government. Three points to say:

1. Not sure if we could get a firework, but eventually there sure will be a payback time for extremely low CPC readings. So firework, if any, is a gift to bulls.

2. INDU lower low today, so according to 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, SPX will have a new low which is lower than 804.30. This also complements the above, which says, firework, if any, is a gift to bulls.

3. Market could bounce tomorrow.

 

Let's see the reasons for the tomorrow's bounce first. It's a tough call though, because in chart 1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), ChiOsc shows negative divergence, so market could drop first tomorrow morning.

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, hollow red bar (which means open low close high but still close bellow the last close), usually means a reversal.

SPYShortTerm

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), black bar (which means open high close low but still close above the last close), also means a possible reversal.

VIXDaily

3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), I think oil is building a base, so could bounce at any time (well, sure it can drop at any time, but still 50% chances, it can bounce, right?), this is good for the overall market.

USODaily

 

Now, the firework. 2.8.2 SPX:CPCE, look familiar? Sure, I know, similarity usually does not work, and that's why I said I'm not sure if we can get a firework this time. But here the point is extremely low CPC readings...

SPXvsCPCE

 

1.2.0 INDU Leads Market. Also 1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, TRAN has confirmed the lower low. Not good.

INDULeads

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