02/03/2009 Market Recap: Firework begins


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3 points to say:

  1. CPC is still very low, and this might be a beginning of the firework according to the past.  For the best scenario, the rally could last for several days until the market gaps (big) down.  However it's unknown to me which day is the reversal day, maybe tomorrow, may the day after tomorrow, maybe...
  2. If the market does not gap down a lot tomorrow, it may dip a bit and close in green.  If it does (big gap down), well, according to above (point 1), better not to expect even an intra-day rebound.
  3. Financials were lagging in today's rally.

Bulls better to lock the profit when appropriate since CPC lower than 0.8 is not sustainable.  Bears should be cautious since the market can go up crazy when CPC is lower than 0.8.

 

1.0.8 Extreme CPC Readings Watch.  This is the proof to the above notes.  When CPC reading is lower than 0.8, at least the market goes up the next day, and the probability of further rally is quite high until a big gap down, afterward the sell off could be massive too.

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1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).  Here is why the market will probably pull back tomorrow morning -- possible bearish rising wedge (volume isn't right though), ChiOsc negative divergence, as well as high STO and RSI readings.

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5.0.1 Select Sector SPDRs.  The pattern on XLF is a bearish dark cloud cover today.  It's bearish that XLF didn't rally with the broad market.

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