02/06/2009 Market Recap: Innocent (Up) Until Proven Guilty (Big Gap Down)

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:

Lots of intermediate-term buy signals in chart 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, well, I don't argue with those signals. Just I'm not sure how high the market can go on the intermediate-term basis. Short-term, one thing is certain, a big pullback is a must in order to correct the extremely low CPC readings. As I've been saying that CPC lower than 0.8 means consecutive up in a few days until one day the market opens with big gap down. When is this (big gap down open) going to happen? I don't know, so innocent until proven guilty, bulls and bears, please wait until the market proven guilty. Until then, bears be prepared for the market to continuously go up, while bulls, don't be too greedy.


First, let's check the overall signals:

0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, lots of intermediate-term buy, not many short-term overbought yet, seems to favor bulls. Especially 7.0.6 Weekly STO and the Market Top/Bottom, once a buy signal signaled seldom a whipsaw it has, so as I said, I don't (or pretend not to) argue with signals.



Now, let me explain why I doubt how high the market can go:

1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, NDXA50R at bottom is way too high which is normally a sign of a top.


1.1.7 QQQQ Outperforms SPY Good Sign?, we all know that recently the QQQQ outperforms the SPY a lot. Is it a good sign?


2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio, normalized CPC is another sign of a top. Well, after check chart 8.1.2 Does extremely low CPC lead a market top?, you might have a second thought, but you still cannot rule out the possibility of being a top, can you?



OK, now the short-term speculation:

7.0.7 Extreme CPC Readings Watch, 80% chances Monday close green (except of course, a big gap down open).


0.0.4 SPX:CPCE, I've mentioned this setup before, hopefully this time bulls are lucky enough to get NYADV overbought before the sell off begins.


1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), STO and RSI testing resistance. 1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), lots of negative divergence. So QQQQ has good chance to pullback Monday morning. If it can again close green, bulls better take some profits.



3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), nothing to do with my short-term speculation, just the down volume on Friday looks like a capitulation. If oil can go up, it's very good news for bulls.


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