02/09/2009 Market Recap: Sell on News?


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Tomorrow is the judgement day, bears are ready to sell on news, aren't they?  However I don't see signs of big sell off except a few overbought signals.

0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights.  Here is the overview of all indicators, all mid-term signals are buy, and not so many overbought short term signals.  This means the market might still have some room on the upside.

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7.0.4 Extreme CPC Readings Watch.  CPC is down to 0.67, speechless, on the other hand it means the probability of close in green tomorrow is about 80%.

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1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min).  The pattern looks like a symmetrical triangle, which has 75% of probability of resolving at the up side.  If SPX breaks the red resistance line afterward, a cup with handle pattern will be formed, bullish.

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2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily).  Here is a black bar which could cause further pullback, and this is bullish to the stock market.

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3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily).  Note that ChiOsc is very low, and I still think that a rebound is possible which is bullish to the stock market.

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7.1.0 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch.  This is good for bears.  Five days of rally cannot even beat with three days of down, according to 7.2.1 Buyable Pullback Rule, this should be a good entry point for short.  However, as I've been saying that low CPC may cause continuous rally, so according to chart 0.0.4 SPX:CPCE, if NYADV hasn't reached the overbought area, better wait until the market opens with big gap down.

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3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily).  The symmetrical triangle on TIP broke out on the upside, welcome to inflation age!  Inflation means the rally of commodities, let's wait and see.

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