02/10/2009 Market Recap: Overdone

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Today's sell off seemed a little overdone to me, so very likely market will rebound at least tomorrow morning. From technical point of view, market still is range bounded, no higher high, no lower low yet, so the top hasn't confirmed and therefor I'm not absolutely sure about intermediate-term direction. One thing is certain though, it is that even the market starts to rally tomorrow, there's not much up room left.



1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), TICK way too oversold, ChiOsc way too low, not only this chart but lots of 30 min charts in my chart book have the same problem, that's why I think that today's sell off was overdone, a bounce is very likely at least tomorrow morning.


1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, if the rule still applies, soon or later SPX will have lower low.


2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, as I said in the commentary area, now we need turn attention to this chart. So far the top is not confirmed, but soon or later the trend line will be broken, this seems inevitable.


2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio, normalized CPC at bottom means a top as long as we're still in a bear market. (Refer to chart 8.1.2 Does extremely low CPC lead a market top? for the exceptions in the bull market.)


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