02/17/2009 Market Recap: Breakdown!

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:

Three points to say:

1. Trading range was broken on the downside today plus lots of newly generated intermediate-term sell signals (0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights). This means an intermediate-term down leg has began. Is it possible that today's breakdown was a faked one? Well, even so, as I have mentioned in 02/11/2009 Market Recap: Consolidation Day, the upside is limited. So looks to me that bears are safe while any rally is a gift to bulls.

2. When will be a bottom (if not the bottom)? It's time to pay attention to chart 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch. Not yet so far. If the market keeps selling off tomorrow, we'll probably review some reliable oversold signals in tomorrow's report. Right now, yes, the market is a little oversold, but not enough for buying a dip in this dangerous bear market.

3. A bounce might be at least tomorrow morning.


0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, range breakdown which means a confirmed Double Top targeting $74.88. NYADV is a little oversold, good, but since NYADV formed a lower low today, this means that SPY will have a close which is lower than today's close. Why? Please read annotations in chart 2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), ChiOsc is way too low, this is the main reason that I think the market will have at least 2 hours (4 candlestick bars) bounce tomorrow. For other 30 min chart, such as QQQQ, IWM, XIU.TO, they all have the same ChiOsc extreme readings. By the way, for everyday's report, if all the indices charts look the same (QQQQ, IWM, XIU.TO, XLE, XLF etc), I'll only annotate the SPX chart. I really don't have time for updating all of them.


1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1974 stocks price down volume up which means the market is oversold. From the chart, pay attention to all the green annotation boxes, looks like recently, whenever, price down volume up relationships appear, the second day tends to close green.



1.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily), from TOAD and BB Width, even TSX was down a lot recently, it seems that TSX is still closer to a top then a bottom.


1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days, two Major Distribution Days so far now, which means either a good bounce is due or there'll be a third Major Distribution Day.

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