05/15/2009 Market Recap: Sell in May?

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


Expect more pullback on longer term.

64% chances to close in green on Monday.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Down* Neutral All but one intermediate-term sell signals are confirmed.
Short-term Down Neutral  


Intermediate-term, 4 reasons, I believe more pullback ahead.

0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, all intermediate-term are SELL while short-term are mostly neutral. This argues for no big rebound in the horizon yet.


0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, 1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, looks like a continuation pattern to me.

SPYShortTerm QQQQShortTerm

1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1156 stocks price down volume down, confirms the continuation pattern mentioned above.

7.1.3 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days, already discussed here: Major Distribution Day and the Magic Number Three. If the 3rd time is the charm, then I expect at least there’ll be another Major Distribution Day ahead.


Short-term, 3 reasons, I expect a rebound Monday with 64% chances of closing in green.

7.0.4 Extreme CPC Readings Watch, CPC < 0.8, this is the main reason that I believe there’re 64% chances Monday will close in green. 2.8.3 SPX:CPCE, also because of CPC < 0.8, a firework trading setup was triggered. This setup, so far, only failed twice.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), lots of positive divergences, arguing for a rebound.


Intraday Cumulative TICK from www.sentimentrader.com, very very oversold.



If we do get a rebound Monday, there’re 2 things to consider:

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), ChiOsc is a little bit too high, so I suspect if any gap up open could be held. Also 1.3.3 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 15 min), 5.2.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE 30 min), both have a very high ChiOsc readings.


1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), the major trend line for the March rally was broken Friday and I believe this trend line could be the target for the rebound.



Lastly, I’d like your attention for 3 more chats.

2.0.1 Volatility Index (Weekly), whether the trend line could hold is critical to bulls. From the STO and RSI, it looks  not very good.


3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield, again, whether the trend line could could is critical to bulls.


3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), breakout from a down price channel. US dollar has an inversed relationships with the stock market recently, so if US dollar keeps going up from here would be very bad for the stock market.


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