06/26/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

The below chart shows, when both SPX and VIX closed in red the same day, 70% chances a green day next day.

But since VIX reached a new low again today while SPX still hasn’t reached even a SWING high, I see some similarities in the following chart.

So which one to believe, it’s your call. Personally I’m more willing to believe that this time we’re in that 30% chances which means a red Monday.

I still believe it’s a sell-able bounce according to “n vs n” rule. And since very short-term, QQQQ is extremely overbought, so perhaps betting on QQQQ to pullback next Monday is safer.