06/26/2009 Market Recap: VIX new low again


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Summary:

Expect QQQQ to have at least a short-term pullback.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral  

I discussed the negative divergence between VIX and SPX in Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary. This is the main reason that I don’t trust this rally.

SPXVIXWatch2

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), VIX ENV10 oversold, still is a pullback setup.

VIXDaily

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), 1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), Bearish Rising Wedge plus lots of negative divergences, a possible pullback setup as well.

SPY15min

Besides, QQQQ has some additional extremes:

2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, too high which usually means a top. Since it’s a RATIO, so I don’t think the spike was caused by Russell 3000 re-balance on Friday.

NATVvsNYTV

5.0.2 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index, Tech sector is overbought. This is year level of overbought, so I don’t think it could be neglected.

BPINFO

Nasdaq 100 short-term model from www.sentimentrader.com, way overbought。

STEM.MR

So to summarize, I tend to believe a pullback Monday, especially QQQQ. 

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, lots saying about a Complex Head and Shoulders Top is in the forming on SPX. The chart below illustrates the idea which shows SPY is probably making a right shoulder now. I have no idea if this is true, just put the chart here for your reference only.

SPYShortTerm

15 Comments on "06/26/2009 Market Recap: VIX new low again"
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    June 28, 2009 at 7:21 am
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