03/17/2010 Market Recap: What does NYHGH new high mean?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in BUY mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL  
ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence.
03/11 Market Recap: AAII too few bears. Bulls are rising rapidly.
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): Non confirmation between SOX and COMPQ.
BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42.
2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: *NYHGH new high means SPX new high ahead.
BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): *16 unfilled gaps. (max was 15)
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): *10 unfilled gaps. (max was 9)
03/08 Market Recap: Institutional Distribution is too low.
0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch: NYDNV too low.
0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NAADV MA(10) too high.
0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Topped?
0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high.
03/17 Market Recap: *Dumb money confidence too high.
03/17 Market Recap: *Too many bearish extremes among all sentimentrader indicators.
CONCLUSION Could short after seeing a daily reversal bar (Open > Close), for aggressive traders only.
Reversal bar triggered on 03/12, good luck bears!
*03/17, be prepared for being wrong, at least no average down here.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model 02/26 L 03/03 low
Reversal Bar 02/26 L 03/15 low
NYMO Sell      
VIX MA ENV    
OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ 0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals: ChiOsc too high.
IWM
CHINA
EMERGING
CANADA 1.5.2 TSE McClellan Oscillator: A little bit negative divergence.
FINANCIALS
REITS
MATERIALS
OIL & ENERGY Broadening Top in the forming on XLE, the breakout direction is unknown.
GOLD & GDX
BIOTECH Black bar at new high doesn’t look good.
DOLLAR Head and Shoulders Bottom. ChiOsc too low.
BOND

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*Skip the SEASONALITY and CYCLE ANALYSIS sessions below if you think they’re superstitious.

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS GENERALLY BULLISH

See 03/12 Market Recap for details.

CYCLE ANALYSIS: EXPECT A CYCLE TOP WITHIN THIS WEEK

See 03/12 Market Recap for details. The SPX daily cycle mentioned yesterday, still valid and look like a top. See 1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily).

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT CORRECTION TO CONFORM THE PAST II PATTERN, NOT SURE WHEN IT STARTS

See 03/12 Market Recap for details.

SHORT-TERM: MYHGH NEW HIGH MEANS A NEW HIGH AHEAD BUT COULD BE A LITTLE WEAKNESS IN VERY SHORT-TERM

Two more top signs today and also lots of statistics I saw all point to a short-term pullback (Intermediate-term is up however), unfortunately so far nothing worked. Since TA is based on the principle that history repeats itself, while we’re now making a history, as so far SPY has been up 14 days in a row, so I’m not sure how long does it take before some of the bearish signals in the table above actually work, therefore if you followed my recommendation shorted on 03/12 before the close while didn’t cover on 03/15, then please make sure you have a stop loss and try your best not to average down unless you’re 1000% sure. For me, the risk control is always the number one, there’s no thing is a sure thing in the trading world, no matter how many signals support your view that worked perfectly in the past.

ShortRecommendation

As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, the NYHGH (NYSE 52 Week Highs) reached the 5th record high which as someone had already commented, means a new high ahead. That’s true, see zoomed out chart below for the past 5 record highs. Normally, a negative divergence must be formed on NYHGH first before any meaningful pullbacks while till now we cannot say that NYHGH has reached its highest point, so still sometimes to go before the market actually tops. Of course, from the chart we can see, if today turns out to be the NYHGH highest point then within a very short time, SPX will close below today’s close.

NYHGH1NYHGH2

Today, 2 of the sentimentrader’s most important indicators reached their recent bearish extremes. Also, as mentioned in the last night’s report, seasonality wise, today is the last bullish day in March (See 03/12 Market Recap). Well, let’s wait and see.

DumbMoneyConfidenceIndicatorsAtExtremes

And the “QQQQ black bar confirmed by a red bar the next day” pattern still looks valid today. 

QQQQBlackBarPlusRedBar 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.