06/03/2010 Market Recap: Key Day Tomorrow


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY? 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode
MOON/SOLAR GANN DAY CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION
06/12 /06/06 06/05-06/07, 06/11-06/14 Week of 06/04, 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Looks like 06/06 (+-) could be the pivot date.
BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed?
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high.
8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed? 
6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed?
05/20 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score from sentimentrader is too low.
6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch: Bottomed?
05/28 Market Recap: II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction.
BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019.
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Positive divergence missing, so one more down leg ahead?
CONCLUSION  
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model *Sell short if SPY tomorrow’s close < tomorrow’s open. The stop loss will be 1.9*ATR(10).
Reversal Bar    
NYMO Sell    
Non-Stop(RSP) 05/11 S N/A Partial profit on 05/28.
Others    
OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ DOWN *BUY
IWM DOWN SELL
CHINA DOWN
EMERGING DOWN *Bearish reversal bar?
EUROPEAN DOWN BUY 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54.
*Bearish reversal bar?
CANADA DOWN
BOND UP *SELL *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield, black bar, so yield will fall, bond shall rebound?
*ChiOsc is way too low.
EURO DOWN *SELL *Descending Triangle breakdown? Doesn’t look good.
GOLD UP SELL 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
*Double reversal bar confirmed, so more pullback ahead?
GDX UP SELL
OIL DOWN
ENERGY DOWN SELL
FINANCIALS DOWN   *Bearish reversal bar?
REITS DOWN SELL *Bearish reversal bar?
MATERIALS DOWN SELL *Bearish reversal bar?

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEK IS BULLISH BUT JUNE HAS BEEN THE 2ND WORST MONTH OF THE YEAR OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS

See 05/28 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAINTAIN PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, II SURVEY MAY MEAN A HUGE REBOUND AHEAD

Maintain the intermediate-term target around 1008 to 1019 (See 05/21 Market Recap for more details) but since II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction, so if the past II survey pattern repeats again this time, it’s possible that we might see huge rebound, even new high before the real correction kicks in. See 05/28 Market Recap for more details.

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: KEY DAY TOMORROW

All eyes are on tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls, so it’s a key day tomorrow. See the table above, as mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, we need an up day tomorrow to confirm the short-term buy signal, and cancel the potential SPY ST Model short setup (assume Close > Open). The chart below shows all Non Farm Payroll days since the March 2009. It seems to me it’s generally bullish and most likely a turning point. So again, key day tomorrow.

NFPWatch 

About the short-term direction, all I can say is a little bullish biased. Except the reason mentioned above that Non Farm Payroll day was generally bullish, let’s take a look at my old trick the “n vs n” rule below. At least looks to me the down momentum is weaker than the up momentum. Plus, don’t forget the table above, all the bottom signals are still there. So short-term is a little bit bullish biased.

NvsN

For tomorrow, I just want to remind you of a typical Non Farm Payroll day: Open high generally goes lower while open low generally goes higher. The quote and charts below are from Bespoke:

If Friday’s report comes in strong and the market opens up big, the short-term trade is to sell. If the report
comes in weak and the market opens down, the short-term trade is to buy.

StrongNFPIntradayWeakNFPIntraday

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