Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:
SHORT-TERM: WATCH SPX 1148 and 1122
Nothing to say today, the short-term direction is not clear, need see which one gets broken first, SPX 1148 or 1122?
- Decisively close above 1148 then bullish. But how bullish will need some imagination, see intermediate-term session below.
- Decisively close below 1122, then could be Double Top or 1-2-3 Trend Change pattern which is a typical short setup.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT NEED SOME IMAGINATION TO FORESEE HOW BULLISH
There’s no doubt that the intermediate-term is bullish, see 09/17 Market Recap and 09/24 Market Recap for back test results. However, as for how bullish, some imaginations are needed (and frankly, I don’t have such kind of ability). Because although the statistics about POMO below almost guarantees the market will be up huge in 3 months, but on the other hand, AAPL which now weights more than 20% in Nasdaq 100 index, is way too stretched that wasn’t pleasant for the overall market in the past. The question is: Will AAPL stretch even more this time? Or could the market be up huge without AAPL?
Take a look at the statistics about POMO first:
According to Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) from Trading the Odds, since we’ve had more than 9 POMO within the last 20 trading days so the market should be up huge (more than 10%) in the next 3 months. The chart below is copied from Trading the Odds for completeness purpose.
Now take a look at what happened whenever AAPL was so stretched:
SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH
See 09/24 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|QQQQ||*LA||4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.|
|EMERGING||UP||4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.|
|CANADA||*LA||TOADV MA(10) too high, pullback?|
|BOND||*UP||4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Morning Doji Star?|
|GOLD||UP||*2 black Bar in a row, pullback?|
|GDX||*DOWN||4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.|
|OIL||UP||*Bearish reversal bar, pullback?|
|ENERGY||*LA||*Bearish reversal bar?|
|FINANCIALS||*DOWN||4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
*3.4.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Bearish reversal bar?
|REITS||*DOWN||4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
*3.4.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): Bearish reversal bar?
|MATERIALS||*LA||*Bearish reversal bar?|