11/09/2010 Market Recap: Bullish Bearish Engulfing


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is SELL, not confirmed though. 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is down but not confirmed, I hold no position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
11/04,11/14,11/26 11/06 : 11/07 Next pivot date: 11/04 – 11/08, 11/24 – 11/26
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 21 unfilled gaps, the max was 21.
10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): NYSI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
T2111, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(200) is a little bit high.
T2112, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(40) is a little bit high.
11/04 Market Recap: Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50) is too high.
11/04 Market Recap: 41% of Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.
11/05 Market Recap: 70%+ chances SPX will close below 1225 on weekly chart within 2 weeks.
*6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: SPX new high while NYMO is negative, topped?
*6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish reversal day, so topped?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model 09/24 L 11/08 Low *Stopped out on 11/09 with profit.
NYMO Sell   *Short if SPY tomorrow’s open > tomorrow’s close. The stop loss will be 2*ATR(10).
*Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: BEARISH ENGULFING WAS BULLISH FOR THE NEXT DAY, BEARISH A WEEK LATER

I see Bearish Engulfing bar all over the place (see ETFs table below), which means bearish reversal 79% of the time. However the back test since 2003 (no obvious edges if test starts from 1991) shows a very very bullish tomorrow which had 85% chances of being a green day and the intermediate-term (from 2 to 4 weeks) was also very very bullish. So the market action today at most argues for a short-term pullback while the intermediate-term still remains bullish.

SPYShortTerm 

The chart below from another angle interprets the bar formed today: Open high forming higher high then close lower, so it’s a bearish reversal day again, which according to the chart below, mostly led to a pullback of some kind, even though the effect recently was not as good as before. So again, we may see more short-term pullbacks, although the pullback could start after tomorrow’s rebound according to the back test about the Bearish Engulfing bar showing above.

SPYBearishReversalBar 

6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, just to remind you about the the principle of the NYMO Sell setup mentioned in the table above, which if confirmed tomorrow, had 60%+ chances of catching a top of some kind.

SPXandNYMODivergenceWatch 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX MAY SHOOT HIGH THEN FALL BACK TO WHERE IT STARTS WHICH USUALLY IS THE 2ND BUY OPPORTUNITY

See 11/05 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: LAST 2 MONTHS OF YEAR ARE BULLISH

See 10/29 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 10/15 L *Bearish Engulfing.
NDX Weekly UP %B too high with negative divergence.
NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
NDX:SPX too high.
Too far away from MA(200) (PPO(1,40,1) too high).
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA 07/15 L
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM ChiOsc is too high with 2 hollow red bars.
EEM Weekly UP EEM:SPX too high.
XIU.TO 08/31 L TOADV MA(10) too high.
*Bearish Engulfing and channel overshoot.
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT ChiOsc is too low.
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD *Bearish Engulfing.
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 10/29 L *Bearish Engulfing.
GDX Weekly UP BPGDM too high, pullback?
USO *WTIC rejected by resistance.
*Bearish Engulfing.
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L *Dark Cloud Cover, well, sort of.
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74.
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 11/02 L *Bearish Engulfing.
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE overbought. XLB:SPX a little too high.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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