11/10/2010 Market Recap: Normalized CPC is a little too low


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 4 of 4 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY, not confirmed though. 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up but not confirmed. I opened both long and short today, closed long but hold trapped short for tomorrow..
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
11/04,11/14,11/26 11/06 : 11/07 Next pivot date: 11/04 – 11/08, 11/24 – 11/26
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 21 unfilled gaps, the max was 21.
10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): NYSI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
T2111, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(200) is a little bit high.
T2112, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(40) is a little bit high.
11/04 Market Recap: Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50) is too high.
11/04 Market Recap: 41% of Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.
11/05 Market Recap: 70%+ chances SPX will close below 1225 on weekly chart within 2 weeks.
6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: SPX new high while NYMO is negative, topped?
6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish reversal day, so topped?
*8.1.4 Normalized CPC: A little low.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model 09/24 L 11/08 Low Stopped out on 11/09 with profit.
NYMO Sell   *Setup not confirmed and no longer valid. Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: CPC <= 0.80, 13 OUT OF 17 TIMES A RED DAY THE NEXT DAY

Nothing to say today, so I’ll skip the After Bell Quick Summary and take the night off.

The rebound today was much weaker than I’ve expected but still it fulfilled the statistics about bullish the next day after a Bearish Engulfing bar. Now the question is, whether indeed this so called Bearish Engulfing is bearish and furthermore whether the candlestick reversal bars still mean anything, starting from tomorrow, we’ll have 3 days to know according to the Bearish Engulfing statistics.

2

One trick for tomorrow, when CPC <= 0.80, 13 out of 17 times (76%) a red day the next day.

3 

8.1.4 Normalized CPC, which applies MACD(10, 200, 1) to CPC so to eliminate different CPC base value that generally various in different period. The reading is a little bit too low, so worth a little bit attention now.

1 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX MAY SHOOT HIGH THEN FALL BACK TO WHERE IT STARTS WHICH USUALLY IS THE 2ND BUY OPPORTUNITY

See 11/05 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: LAST 2 MONTHS OF YEAR ARE BULLISH

See 10/29 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 10/15 L
NDX Weekly UP %B too high with negative divergence.
NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
NDX:SPX too high.
Too far away from MA(200) (PPO(1,40,1) too high).
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA 07/15 L
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM ChiOsc is too high.
EEM Weekly UP EEM:SPX too high.
XIU.TO 08/31 L TOADV MA(10) too high.
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT ChiOsc is too low.
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 10/29 L
GDX Weekly UP BPGDM too high, pullback?
USO *WTIC breakout!
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74.
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 11/02 L
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE overbought. XLB:SPX a little too high.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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