01/04/2011 Market Recap: No RSI Negative Divergence Yet


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/05-01/07 01/04 : 01/06 Next pivot date: 01/07
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 24 unfilled gaps, the max is 24.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually?
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
*
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP, I hold partial long position overnight, not idea if it’s safe though.
MY STRATEGY:  STOCK BOND EURO OIL GOLD
Long but I will be very careful here. Long Long Long

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE ON THE UPSIDE

Whether the yesterday’s high is the high or today’s low is a low, I have no clue (well, as usual), need see tomorrow (again, as usual). Generally, the previous high should at least be tested once because we earth people like to try twice before giving up and turning to the opposite. In the language of indicator, it means a negative divergence of RSI is needed before a little bigger pullback is possible which right now is still missing. So purely from the price pattern, looks like there’s one more push up ahead at least.

RSINegativeDivergenceNeeded

The bear need watch today’s low for a possible 1-2-3 trend change. If indeed, then because of the possible time resistance, see chart below (the original idea is from Elliott Wave International), 1 = 5 and 2 = 4 in terms of trading days, this time, bear may have a better chance. By the way, if 1 = 5 in terms of price, then SPX target should be 1291, as since today is the 25th trading day since the wave 5 started, so bull still have 2 days (26 to 27 trading day) to achieve this goal, in theory, of course.

TimeAnalysis

Nothing else to say, I mentioned that when both CPC and CPCE are low, it could mean a top of some kind yesterday, today the CPC and CPCE still are very low, so I’d like your attention. Click 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch to see the chart yourself.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, JANUARY’S 1ST 5 DAYS IS AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 12/21 L
NDX Weekly UP  
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds.
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 12/02 L TOADV MA(10) a little too high.
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT Breakout, so TLT could be bottomed. Need watch the trend line resistance though.
TLT Weekly UP
FXE 3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): 1-2-3 trend change, so dollar could be topped.
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 12/17 S *Watch for potential 1-2-3 trend change. If GDX topped then be careful about gold itself.
GDX Weekly UP
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 12/01 L
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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