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SHORT-TERM: AAPL COULD PULLBACK AFTER ER, IBM CLOSE TOMORROW WOULD PREDICT SPX DIRECTION IN NEXT 5 WEEKS
Well, I find myself genius because I’m still able to find something to say today, LOL. As mentioned in 01/14 Market Recap, if ever there’s a counter-strike from bears, this week is the best time. So far the good ER in AH seems not make the SPX skyrocket into the sky, probably it is the very first good sign for bears, but of course we need see tomorrow. Still, before seeing a 1%+ down day and close almost low of day, any pullback expectation is only expectation no matter how many excuses I’m able to find.
Three points for your attention:
- From all the recent AAPL ER actions, looks to me, no matter beat or not beat, it’s not very pleasant thereafter, so be careful.
- Statistically (From Bespoke), how IBM close tomorrow has 80% chances to predict the SPX direction in the next 5 weeks.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12
The price and time target I’ve been blah blah for the intermediate-term has finally been met, although the time target seems a little too early but let’s give it another week to see whether the forecast is good or bad. See 01/14 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY, HORRIBLE WHOLE WEEK
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|NDX Weekly||UP||Too far away from MA(200) and BPNDX is way too overbought.|
|CHINA Weekly||UP||Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds.|
|XIU.TO Weekly||UP||Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful.|
|TLT||0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?|
|GLD||1-2-3 trend change, wait for further confirm, GLD may fall into a downtrend.|
|GDX||12/17 S||1-2-3 trend change confirmed, so GDX could be topped. Be careful about gold itself.|
|XLE||06/15 L||Too far away from MA(200).|
|XLF Weekly||UP||Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.|
|XLB Weekly||UP||BPMATE is way too overbought.|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.